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Ben Smee
The New South Wales State Emergency Service says it has responded to 6,300 calls for help, as heavy rains to the south of Tropical Cyclone Alfred hit communities on the north coast and northern rivers.
A number of communities have been evacuated, including Lismore’s CBD, north and south. The town was badly affected by flooding in 2022.
“As the situation unfolds, more evacuations may be issued, stay up to date, and stay alert,” the SES says.
The service says it has performed three flood rescues and responded to 3,495 incidents already during Tropical Cyclone Alfred, which remains on latest advice about 24 hours from landfall.
Ben Smee
Tropical Cyclone Alfred has performed another erratic loop as it tracks towards the southeast Queensland coast, as forecasters warn the system’s behaviour means “significant uncertainty” remains about where, when and how forcefully it will reach landfall.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s updated tracking maps – from early on Friday morning – show Alfred hitting the coast just north of Brisbane about daybreak on Saturday.
It is predicted to maintain its category two intensity until it reaches Moreton Bay, but could be weakened by the bay islands and downgraded to a category one storm by the time it reaches the coast.
Those tracking maps are best estimates, using information from a number of models that predict how the cyclone might behave. Forecasters were accurately able to provide communities with significant warning that Alfred would turn west on Tuesday and head towards the coast.
But as if to underscore the difficulty of giving precise information – like the time and place of the cyclone crossing the coast – Alfred is stumbling about erratically as it heads towards the populated south east.
Late on Friday the cyclone performed another pirouette, the track looping back around on itself.
“The system maintains a general westerly track, however it recently completed a small loop, similar to previous loops that have occurred over the past few days,” the bureau said in its update on Friday.
“It would not be a surprise to see further short term variations in the track as Alfred nears the coast, which will be an important consideration when following the system on radar.
“A mid-level ridge to the south will steer Alfred generally westwards towards the coast. However, there is variation in the strength of the steering flow and north-south variations are anticipated.
“The latest track indicates that landfall is most likely on Friday night or Saturday morning. However, due to the system’s slow and occasionally erratic motion, there is considerable uncertainty in the exact timing, and the crossing itself is expected to be prolonged.”
Gale-force winds accompanying the storm have already hit a large stretch of the Queensland and NSW coast.
This has led to widespread power outages.
As of 5.30am, Queensland’s Energex power network was reporting 28,655 customer outages across south-east Queensland, all attributed to “Damage Due To Cyclone”.
In NSW, the provider Essential Energy said that as of 6am Cyclone Alfred had left over 35,000 homes and businesses without power in northern NSW overnight after severe winds and heavy rain covered the region.
The worst hit communities were in the Northern Rivers and Far North Coast.
“Essential Energy crews worked late into the evening to restore what they could safely until conditions became too dangerous to work in,” the company said in an online update.
“Once safe to do so, crews will continue to restore power where they can until they are able to access areas of the network that are flooded or damaged by wind or vegetation debris.
“Due to the extreme conditions, the extent of the damage and the continuing weather event it may take several days before power is restored to customers.”
BoM warns of life-threatening flash-flooding
Bom forecaster Jonathan Howe has told the ABC that the impact from wind and rain will still be significant.
Regardless of whether it does cross as a category 1, 2, or 3, we are still expecting that very heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash-flooding well before the crossing and well after the crossing as well and that very dangerous storm surge.
The outer part of the storm is lashing the coast on an enormous sweep from the Sunshine Coast to Grafton in northern NSW, with wind speeds touching 111km/h at Byron Bay.
The NSW SES has issued 21 emergency warnings, 36 watch and act warnings and 36 advice warnings.
They include prepare to evacuate advice for several areas in northern NSW including Murwillumbah, South Murwillumbah and Settlement Point due to flooding risk.
The SES advised people in parts of Mullumbimby to the east of the railway line to monitor the situation and prepare to evacuate. An evacuation centre has been set up at the Ocean Shores Country Club.
As we’re all now beginning to realise, Alfred is slow moving and not entirely predictable in its movements. The past few hours underline this.
At one point in the night – according to the update at 11pm AEST – it appeared to do another turn away from the coast and was 240km off the coast. At 7pm it had been 225km east of Brisbane.
BoM tracking map of Tropical Cyclone Alfred. Photograph: BoM
By the time BoM issued its next advice at 1.34am, it appeared to have righted itself again and was heading back towards land.
“After being slow moving for several hours, Tropical #CycloneAlfred is moving to the west once again, towards Qld coast,” the BoM said.
The current tracking map shows that it will be about 25km off the coast by 1am on Saturday morning, by which time it will have weakened to a category 1 storm.
Welcome to our live coverage of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
The latest advice from the Bureau of Meteorology at 4.52am AEST places Alfred 195km east of Brisbane. It has travelled 30km since the forecast issued by the BoM at 7pm, when it was 225km east of the city. It continues to be slow moving.
The latest advice says the eye of the storm is still tracking to cross the coast on Friday night or early on Saturday morning, “most likely close to Moreton Bay between Noosa and Coolangatta”, and will have weakened to a category 1 storm.
But the effects of the storm are already being felt over a large area – and the next 24 hours are likely to be tough for the millions in or near the storm’s path.
The BoM said there was “a very high risk of significant impacts due to widespread heavy rainfall over the coming days”.
Communities from Double Island Point in Queensland to Grafton in New South Wales, including Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Byron Bay and Ballina but not including Grafton, are all in the warning zone.
The storm will be packing heavy rainfall which could bring life-threatening flash flooding, the BoM said, along with very strong winds, storm surges and high tides.
We will be bringing you updates throughout the day.
