NBANBAWill Nikola Jokic’s best season yet yield another MVP? Or will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander play spoiler? Here are my updated picks for every award on the ballot.
By Michael PinaJan. 27, 1:39 pm UTC • 8 min
The NBA season is officially just past its halfway point, offering a wonderful excuse to take stock of every major awards race. Some of these “winners” are unchanged from what my hypothetical ballot looked like at the quarter mark, but enough has happened since then to warrant a close look at every category. Without further ado, here they are.
To paraphrase a line from last week’s All-Star column: Jokic has been the best player in the world for about five years, and this is his best season yet. With all due respect to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a ridiculously impressive candidate who’s shredded everything in his path on a team with the NBA’s highest net rating and the Western Conference’s best record, topping Jokic’s bar will require irrefutable evidence by way of something we might’ve never seen before. Despite the views of oddsmakers who disagree, this should still be Jokic’s MVP award to lose because he’s simply having one of the most impressive individual seasons in NBA history.
The production is unparalleled. Jokic is currently averaging 29.9 points, 13.1 rebounds, 10.1 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. Among all players, those numbers rank third, third, second, and fourth—LOL—respectively. He has the eighth-highest true shooting percentage and the sixth-highest true usage rate in the league, with a 33.2 PER that is currently the highest of all time
The efficiency is silly. He’s shooting 54 percent from the midrange, and, if you don’t count the league-leading 11 heaves he’s launched at the end of a quarter, 50 percent from behind the 3-point line. (Jokic knows not to upset the basketball gods.) Meanwhile, only Giannis Antetokounmpo has scored more points in the paint.
The value is (still and forever more) surreal. When he’s on the court, Denver’s offense generates 124.8 points per 100 possessions (second in the league among all players who average at least 20 minutes). When he sits, it plummets down to 102.7 points per 100 possessions, good for a couple of points below the putrid Washington Wizards. When you compile a few impact metrics, Jokic ranks at the very top. He’s also first in win shares per 48 minutes, box score plus-minus, and value over replacement player. His efficiency differential yields a plus-54 win effect. (The next-highest player is plus-38; SGA is at plus-22.)
Overall, when he’s on the court, Denver outscores its opponent by 11.9 points per 100 possessions, and when he sits, it is outscored by 10.1 points per 100 possessions—a gigantic 22-point gap no longer inflated by all-bench units that play when Jokic needs to rest. Michael Malone has staggered Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. with the Joker more than ever this season, and Aaron Gordon has come off the bench since returning from a right calf strain.
His “Wait, what just happened?” moments are as frequent as ever, like that no-look, over-the-head, back-tap pass to Aaron Gordon that many will fairly tag as this season’s most extraordinary sequence … in a game that also featured this assist:
Jokic has 20 triple-doubles, more than twice as many as the next player. By a sizable amount, he leads the league in total touches. He also ranks 42nd in time of possession; he’s an exemplar of selflessness who is impossible to prepare for.
If narrative is your thing, Jokic lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and resurrected Russell Westbrook’s career, functioning like a sedative for the chaotic, ever-imploding ex-vampire by clarifying what his role can still be in a winning situation. Nobody inspires and emboldens their teammates like Jokic. He’s the NBA’s best player and most supportive coworker, a priceless combination.
nbavisuals.com
nbavisuals.com
The Nuggets, despite nagging health issues from Murray and Gordon, are currently fourth in the Western Conference (and 26-13 when Jokic plays). They rank first in net rating on the second night of a back-to-back, too.
SGA has done more than enough to win an MVP award—and could have it locked up in just about any season from the past 10 years. But his excellence just happens to fall an eyelash shy of Jokic, who’s operating at an unimaginably high level, even for him.
Honorable mentions: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum
Rookie of the Year basically never goes to a scrappy, offensively limited role player who shows up every day and comfortably handles the tedious chores nobody else wants to do. This is Wells. Without him, Memphis’s rise back to the upper echelon of its conference would be significantly less smooth than it has been. Wells’s list of responsibilities includes but is not limited to: catching passes, making shots, and hounding the other team’s best player as they run up and down the court—so none of his teammates have to.
The usage rate of his defensive assignment, on average, is 22.65 percent. That’s third highest out of 136 players who’ve logged at least 1,000 minutes this season. Translation: Memphis’s coaching staff really trusts him. Wells is disciplined, quick, versatile, and tireless. On the ball, he shows his hands, absorbs contact with his chest, and knows where his help is coming from. Off the ball, he works hard denying stars access to it—important stuff most rookies take years to learn.
Ever since Marcus Smart sprained his ankle back on October 30, Wells has been the Grizzlies’ starting small forward, able to fill a 3-and-D-sized hole that’s been empty since the Ja Morant era began. (Ziaire Williams crawled so Wells could run.) And, you know, it’s not a big deal or anything, but Wells also leads all rookies in points and 3s and is second in plus-minus. If driving a gap or a closeout is necessary, he can do it:
Every other realistic candidate has worse counting stats, is less efficient, and plays on a team that can’t sniff Memphis’s record. Would he be the “worst” Rookie of the Year ever? Possibly. Any chance of him making an All-Star team is already zero. But he was the 39th pick (!) in last year’s draft, so Memphis absolutely could not care less.
Honorable mentions: Stephon Castle, Yves Missi, Alex Sarr
Pritchard has cooled off a little bit since I gave out my quarter-season awards last month. He’s no longer on pace to have one of the greatest high-volume 3-point shooting seasons on record, and a few other candidates—De’Andre Hunter, Naz Reid, Caris LeVert, and Malik Beasley—are hot on his trail.
But among those who come off the bench, Pritchard still leads in total minutes, total points, and plus-minus and is second in assists. When compared to every player in the entire league, starter or reserve, he’s launching the sixth-most 3s per 100 possessions with the highest accuracy out of every player who ranks in the top 15. Pritchard operates with a gravity (i.e., respect level) that simply didn’t exist in October and November. Shots are harder. Defensive scrutiny is more severe. Yet he can still shake free off a screen or, more importantly, a live dribble, with this stepback that’s been a season-long revelation:
The only guards who’ve logged at least 1,000 minutes with a higher true shooting percentage are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Darius Garland, Norm Powell, and Zach LaVine, and Pritchard is currently fifth in estimated plus-minus among all players who average fewer than 30 minutes per game. His contribution is essential for a bona fide championship contender.
Honorable mentions: De’Andre Hunter, Naz Reid, Caris LeVert
Honorable mentions: Evan Mobley, Dyson Daniels, Lu Dort
Despite having plenty of health and 3-point luck on his side, Atkinson is a no-brainer.
From enabling Evan Mobley and watching him become an All-Star, to coaxing quite a bit of sacrifice out of Donovan Mitchell, to finding lineups that empower his bench without de-emphasizing his starters, to overseeing the league’s most improved offense and committing to a more switch-heavy defensive approach, Atkinson’s fingerprints are all over a Cavaliers team that’s running away with the Eastern Conference and has the second-best record in the NBA.
Honorable mentions: J.B. Bickerstaff, Ty Lue, Ime Udoka
This award typically honors a young player who was already supposed to get better, which is asinine. (Cade Cunningham being the betting favorite—as a former no. 1 pick who’s finally alongside a rational supporting cast, playing for a head coach who won’t undermine his development—makes zero sense.)
So instead, let’s go in the opposite direction and give it to a 31-year-old who’s already older than every winner in the award’s history: Norm “Dr. Cream” Powell. Even with Paul George gone and Kawhi Leonard just recently making his season debut, everything about Powell’s performance this season has been a stunner. He entered the year as a complementary high-voltage scorer off the bench and is now a full-time starter, averaging more points per game than LeBron James, Steph Curry, Jaylen Brown, and Donovan Mitchell. (Last year he was at 13.9 points; this year he’s at 23.9.)
All of it comes with the highest true usage rate and true shooting percentage of his career. Translation: With a ton more responsibility, Powell has also been a lot more efficient. That … doesn’t happen. He’s making 43.1 percent of his 3s on 8.0 attempts per game, numbers reminiscent of Prime Klay. Nobody curls off a pindown tighter than Powell:
The action sums up his entire on-court personality: sharp, no wasted motion or hesitation, the best kind of tunnel vision. (The Clippers’ turnover rate is 2.0 percentage points lower with Powell on the floor, which ranks in the 90th percentile at his position.) You can’t help but love it: a player who knows, accepts, and has mastered his limitations. In helping replace George’s production, Powell has never tried to be PG. There’s no high-volume pick-and-roll playmaking; when he blasts out of a dribble handoff, his mind looks to score because that’s what he’s great at. And even with that already as his reputation, Powell is currently better than anyone thought possible, on a team that needs every ounce of it.
Honorable mentions: Jalen Johnson, Tyler Herro, Ty Jerome
Let’s keep this brief. SGA is a samurai. In the last five minutes of games in which the scoring margin is within five points, his usage rate (41.5) and true shooting percentage (67.9) could probably summon enough warm air to reverse a polar vortex. Also, his 58.8 points per 100 possessions rank second in that sample size.
If the Thunder are in a dogfight and Gilgeous-Alexander is on the court, it’s unlikely they’ll lose. If he doesn’t win this award, it’s probably because the Thunder were ahead in too many games to even need him at the end.
Honorable mentions: Nikola Jokic, Darius Garland, Trae Young
Michael Pina is a senior staff writer at The Ringer who covers the NBA.
