So … the South Regional is absolutely stacked. If you’re a college hoops sicko, this is the quadrant for you, with a fascinating mix of quality teams and storylines, right down to North Carolina sneaking into the First Four as the last at-large in the field.

Auburn is the tournament’s top overall seed, but the road to San Antonio won’t be an easy one. The Tigers could get an under-seeded Louisville playing a virtual home game in Lexington in the second round, if the Cardinals can get past Creighton in the 8 versus 9 matchup.

The South also features two of the trendiest double-digit upset picks in No. 12 UC San Diego and No. 13 Yale, but neither gets a paper tiger. The Tritons, riding a Tournament-best 15-game winning streak, face white-hot No. 5 Michigan fresh off the Big Ten tournament title, and Yale faces a physical No. 4 Texas A&M.

In the bottom portion of the bracket, Tom Izzo has Michigan State as a No. 2 seed 25 years after the Spartans last won the title in 2000. Their path could be aided by the news that No. 3 Iowa State will be without star guard Keshon Gilbert, who will miss the tournament due to injury.

Who survives this crucible? If the SEC can avoid some first-weekend upsets, Auburn will face an Aggies team in the Sweet 16 that it already lost to earlier this month. Or if the Big Ten is finally going to snap its quarter-century championship drought, this region might be the best chance between Michigan and Michigan State, two rivals that could meet again in the Elite Eight.

Regardless, the winner will be battle tested. — Justin Williams

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1. Auburn (28-5, 15-3 SEC)

Coach: Bruce Pearl (17-13 in NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: Johni Broome (SEC Player of the Year)

BetMGM title odds: +400

Sweet 16 projected chance: 98.9 percent

Final Four projected chance: 40.4 percent

It’s national title or bust for Auburn. Fair or not, when you spend months as the No. 1 team in the nation and the No. 1 team in all of the metrics, the expectation is that you prove it in March. The Tigers can be beaten — two other title contenders picked them off this season — but no one in the country played a more top-loaded schedule than them. They appear too big to fail with the number of ways they can win games. If Auburn is not in San Antonio for the Final Four, I will be shocked. — Rob Dauster

2. Michigan State (27-6, 17-3 Big Ten)

Coach: Tom Izzo (56-25 in NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: Jase Richardson (Third-team All Big-Ten)

BetMGM title odds: +2200

Sweet 16 projected chance: 67.6 percent

Final Four projected chance: 19.1 percent

The Spartans playing at their peak in March is a true rite of spring. They have the depth, defense, glass command and around-the-rim scoring to once again advance deep. Jace Richardson’s scoring emergence in February brought an unexpected jolt. His rise is absolutely key to State’s long-term success. If — and that’s a giant IF — Sparty can shoot 34 percent or higher on 3s, the Spartans could break through unscathed in their bracket. That, however, might be the green beer talking. — Brad Evans

3. Iowa State (24-9, 13-7 Big 12)

Coach: T.J. Otzelberger (4-5 in NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: Curtis Jones (First-team All-Big 12)

BetMGM title odds: +3000

Sweet 16 projected chance: 65.2 percent

Final Four projected chance: 15.6 percent

Iowa State will be without star floor general Keshon Gilbert. If the Cyclones can clean up the miscues and challenge the 3 like they did earlier this season, they will exceed soured expectations. Despite their finish-line limp, overlooking their Elite Eight potential isn’t recommended. — Evans

4. Texas A&M (22-10, 11-7 SEC)

Coach: Buzz Williams (11-10 in NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: Wade Taylor IV (First-team All-SEC)

BetMGM title odds: +6600

Sweet 16 projected chance: 53.1 percent

Final Four projected chance: 9.1 percent

I can’t see Texas A&M getting picked off by a mid-major in the first round. The Aggies just have too much size and strength. However, I have a hard time seeing them get past their first matchup against a top seed. Maybe that comes in the second round. Maybe that comes in the Sweet 16. Whenever it does happen, that is when A&M will be heading home. — Dauster

5. Michigan (25-9, 14-6 Big Ten)

Coach: Dusty May (4-2 in NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: Danny Wolf (Second-team All-Big Ten)

BetMGM title odds: +10000

Sweet 16 projected chance: 20.5 percent

Final Four projected chance: 1.7 percent

With Indiana rumors swirling, Dusty May signed an extension in late February to remain in Ann Arbor. He’s a phenomenal architect who recently guided Florida Atlantic to a Final Four. A second-weekend appearance is the likely ceiling for Michigan, but if its 3s start falling again and Vladislav Goldin stays out of foul trouble, it could thwart that notion. Wolf is a special talent. Maybe most extraordinary is the Wolverines’ consistency at winning tight games. Chris Webber would agree, provided he doesn’t attempt to call a costly timeout. — Evans

6. Ole Miss (22-11, 10-8 SEC)

Coach: Chris Beard (12-5 in NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: Sean Pedulla (Third-team All-SEC)

BetMGM title odds: +10000

Sweet 16 projected chance: 17.8 percent

Final Four projected chance: 1.9 percent

As witnessed at previous stops, Beard is capable of invigorating teams widely perceived as average and guiding them to previously believed unreachable territory. This Ole Miss club, however, throws soft hands in the interior. Bullying frontcourts will brutalize it. That weakness and a crumbling perimeter D has the Rebels on upset alert. The advanced data sketches a grim picture. — Evans

7. Marquette (23-10, 13-7 Big East)

Coach: Shaka Smart (10-11 in NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: Kam Jones (First-team All-Big East)

BetMGM title odds: +8000

Sweet 16 projected chance: 20.0 percent

Final Four projected chance: 2.9 percent

Jones was the best player in college basketball in November. He was playing like a first-team All-American through January, but he has come back to earth a bit in conference play. Part of that is due to league foes knowing the scouting report on him better than anyone, but that would matter less if the senior guard’s supporting cast was playing at a higher level. Jones is capable of putting this team on his back and carrying it to the second weekend, if not deeper. But for that to happen, David Joplin and Chase Ross must play well. If they don’t, Marquette is a team that could get picked off in the first round. — Dauster

8. Louisville (27-7, 18-2 ACC)

Coach: Pat Kelsey (0-4 in NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: Chucky Hepburn (ACC Defensive Player of the Year)

BetMGM title odds: +10000

Sweet 16 projected chance: 14.4 percent

Final Four projected chance: 3.7 percent

I have been buying Louisville since the start of the season. Its downturn at the end of November and start of December, when it lost four of five games, can be explained pretty easily: The Cardinals lost their best player, Kasean Pryor, in the defeat to Oklahoma. Then they played Ole Miss, Duke and Kentucky with seven healthy bodies and a system that needed to be reworked. Once they figured all that out, they’ve been a wagon. Hepburn’s presence means Kelsey will almost always have the best point guard and the best defender on the floor. The offense will create looks regardless of opponent. As long as Louisville is able to guard and clean the glass, it’ll compete with anyone. — Dauster

9. Creighton (24-10, 15-5 Big East)

Coach: Greg McDermott (11-12 in NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: Ryan Kalkbrenner (First-team All-Big East)

BetMGM title odds: +10000

Sweet 16 projected chance: 66.5 percent

Final Four projected chance: 1.2 percent

On paper, Creighton is a fascinating dichotomy. The team is an advanced metrics dream, however its sloppy handles and over-reliance on treys trigger full-blown nightmares. Kalkbrenner is McDermott’s heart and soul, but Steven Ashworth’s contributions are vital. When on, the point man is a terrific distributor and shotmaker. Omaha native Warren Buffett wants to party. In order for that to happen, the locals must avoid foul trouble, rain triples and minimize mistakes. — Evans

10. New Mexico (26-7, 17-3 MWC)

Coach: Richard Pitino (1-3 in NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: Donovan Dent (Mountain West Player of the Year)

BetMGM title odds: +20000

Sweet 16 projected chance: 11.4 percent

Final Four projected chance: 1.3 percent

Channeling the free spirit of Bill Walton (RIP!), New Mexico, at times, flows beautifully like the mighty waters of the Rio Grande. Its frontcourt can bang with anyone, and when the triples fall from Dent, Tru Washington and CJ Noland, it is a very tough customer — don’t forget it defeated UCLA and VCU in non-onference play. Draw is everything, but the under-the-radar Lobos have the potential to lash out. — Evans

11. San Diego State (21-9, 14-6 Mountain West)

Coach: Brian Dutcher (7-5 in NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: Miles Byrd (Second-team All-Mountain West)

BetMGM title odds: +50000

Sweet 16 projected chance: 4.4 percent

Final Four projected chance: 0.4 percent

After beating Creighton and Houston at the Players Era Festival in Vegas, San Diego State played six regular-season games against KenPom top-50 teams. The Aztecs went 4-2, averaging 55.5 points in the losses compared with 72 points in the wins. When the offense stalls, this team is very beatable. It will need to score to get out of the first round and beyond. — Sam Lance

11. North Carolina (22-13, 13-7 ACC)

Coach: Hubert Davis (7-2 in NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: RJ Davis (Second-team All-ACC)

BetMGM title odds: +30000

Sweet 16 projected chance: 9.4 percent

Final Four projected chance: 0.9 percent

North Carolina is more deserving of the NIT. Sure, it’s a brand name that has cranked out numerous legends over the years, but this mediocre bunch lacks the defense and height to compete beyond the first round. There are better double-digit sleepers to advance bracket lines. As good as the Tar Heels are offensively, they simply have too many flaws in critical categories. — Evans

12. UC San Diego (30-4, 18-2 Big West)

Coach: Eric Olen (First NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones (Big West Player of the Year)

BetMGM title odds: +50000

Sweet 16 projected chance: 15.6 percent

Final Four projected chance: 1.1 percent

The Big West rep is a big-time sleeper. Bettors in attendance are fully aware. No team in college basketball covered the spread better than UCSD (25-7 ATS). It boasts kleptomaniac hands on defense and a smooth outside stroke when in possession. Olen’s squad rarely makes mistakes. Not to be overlooked, New Zealand import Tait-Jones is a phenomenal rim attacker who generates ample points at the charity stripe. Given their consistency from the arc, general judiciousness and steady challenges, the Tritons are seemingly bound to don a glass slipper. — Evans

13. Yale (22-7, 13-1 Ivy)

Coach: James Jones (2-4 in NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: John Poulakidas (First-team All-Ivy League)

BetMGM title odds: +100000

Sweet 16 projected chance: 10.9 percent

Final Four projected chance: 0.6 percent

Jones has led Yale to four NCAA Tournaments since 2016, and it likely would have been five had the 2020 season completed. He’s won either the Ivy League regular season or tournament title in each of the last six seasons, and last year, the Elis beat Auburn in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. What makes Yale dangerous this season is that the Bulldogs don’t turn the ball over or give up offensive rebounds. They are really good at cutting off dribble penetration, they force opponents to settle for contested 3s and happen to shoot 39 percent from 3 themselves. — Dauster

14. Lipscomb (25-9, 14-4 ASUN)

Coach: Lennie Acuff (First Tournament)

Player to watch: Jacob Ognacevic (ASUN Player of the Year)

BetMGM title odds: +100000

Sweet 16 projected chance: 3.0 percent

Final Four projected chance: 0.1 percent

Lipscomb is one of the hottest teams entering the NCAA Tournament, finishing the season 11-1, including the Atlantic Sun tournament title. The Bison do a few things well. First, they don’t turn the ball over. Lipscomb’s turnover percentage (14.4 percent) ranks top-20 nationally and its non-steal turnover percentage is in the top 10. The Bison don’t foul either, ranking No. 3 in the country in fewest fouls per game at 12.6. Simply put: the Bison aren’t going to beat themselves. That could be what allows Lipscomb to get an upset in the first round. Ognacevic averages over 20 points and eight rebounds per game while shooting 40.2 percent on 3-pointers. — Lance

15. Bryant (23-11, 14-2 America East)

Coach: Phil Martelli Jr. (First NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: Earl Timberlake (America East Player of the Year)

BetMGM title odds: +100000

Sweet 16 projected chance: 1.0 percent

Final Four projected chance: 0.02 percent

Bryant has as much high-major talent as any of the auto-bids this side of High Point. It starts with Earl Timberlake, a physical, 6-foot-6 lefty who is a former top-30 recruit in his fifth season. Rafeal Pinzon began his career at St. John’s and, at 6-foot-6, is one of the more dangerous shooters you’ll find. Pinzon averaged 18.7 points and shot 39.1 percent from 3-point range on more than seven attempts per game. The Bulldogs get out and run in transition, they have weapons who can get to the rim and they attack the offensive glass. Combine that with a pair of players who have spent significant time at the high-major level, both of whom can take over and win a game on their own, and this is a team to take seriously. — Dauster

16. Alabama State (19-15, 12-6 SWAC)

Coach: Tony Madlock (First NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: CJ Hines (SWAC tournament MVP)

BetMGM title odds: +100000

Sweet 16 projected chance: 0.03 percent

Final Four projected chance: 0.00 percent

The Hornets are dancing for the first time since 2011 after winning the SWAC tournament, and they have won six straight. When Hines goes, the Hornets go. They are 5-1 when the senior guard scores 20-plus points. Hines, Amarr Knox and TJ Madlock are the only players to average double-figure scoring this season. Those three have accounted for about 55 percent of the Hornets’ scoring output. The good thing about being guard-heavy? Alabama State doesn’t beat itself. Its turnover percentage of 13.2 percent ranks No. 5 in the country. — Lance

16. Saint Francis (16-17, 8-8 NEC)

Coach: Rob Krimmel (First NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: Riley Parker (First-team All-NEC)

BetMGM title odds: +100000

Sweet 16 projected chance: 0.02 percent

Final Four projected chance: 0.00 percent

Krimmel has been at Saint Francis since 1996: four seasons as a player, 12 seasons as an assistant and the last 13 as the head coach. For the first time in those 29 years, he will be heading to the NCAA Tournament. That’s a wonderful story, but it figures to end quickly. The Red Flash are under .500 this season. On Feb. 15, they were sitting at 10-17 overall and 5-8 in the NEC, a game ahead of last place. They closed the regular season with three straight OT wins, and in the NEC tournament they knocked off Wagner, LIU and Central Connecticut. This is a team that ranks sub-300 overall on KenPom. The closest the Red Flash kept it with a high-major program this season was a 17-point loss at Georgetown. They lost 111-57 at Maryland in December. Enjoy the ride while it lasts. — Dauster

(Top photos of Johni Broome, left and Jase Richardson: Stew Milne, Michael Reaves / Getty Images)