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Victor Wembanyama was, until Thursday’s news that he’s expected to miss the rest of the season, a mortal lock to win Defensive Player of the Year.
He has blocked 74 more shots than any other player in basketball this season. He is one of only seven centers with more than 50 steals. Only four players in basketball contest more shots per game, and none of those four players deflect even half as many passes. Rarely is it fair to say that an award race is over in February, but had Wembanyama remained healthy, he was going to win Defensive Player of the Year. Possibly unanimously.
Now, though, Wembanyama is ineligible for the award. His season ends with only 46 games played due to a blood clot in his right shoulder. That leaves him 19 games short of the minimum mandated for eligibility.
Someone else is going to win the award. The question now is who.
Wembanyama was so singularly dominant that he bucked most of the historical trends that tended to lead us to previous winners. With him now out of the picture, three trends stand out from past winners to help us understand what voters for this award tend to look for:
- Team success on defense. Every winner since 2008 has played for a top-five defense. The Spurs were ranked 19th. An exception would have been made for Wembanyama. Perhaps that opens the door for another possible exception, but without Wembanyama’s exceptional statistical profile, they’d be fighting an uphill battle.
- Team success overall. In that same span since 2008, every winner has played for a playoff team. The postseason format has obviously changed since then, but it’s hard to imagine anyone outside of the top 10 in their conference meaningfully contending for the award.
- Size. Only three perimeter players have won this century: Ron Artest, Kawhi Leonard and Marcus Smart. It’s not impossible for a wing to win, but it’s rare and would require a nearly perfect resume.
Further complicating matters here is how many other elite defenders have already been locked out of eligibility. Chet Holmgren, Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Hartenstein and Jalen Suggs are all out of the running already, and Anthony Davis will soon join them. The pool isn’t quite as deep as it usually would be.
So, who’s still on the table?
Top candidates to win Defensive Player of the Year
The betting favorites, according to Caesars Sportsbook, are Jaren Jackson Jr. (+100) and Evan Mobley (+130). Already, both defy the top-five defense rule. Jackson’s Grizzlies rank seventh. Mobley’s Cavaliers rank eighth. But both check the big man requirement, and both play for winning teams.
Jackson edges Mobley in most of the counting stats. He blocks more shots. He steals and deflects more balls. Opponents shoot a lower percentage against him at the rim. But Jackson doesn’t really rebound, and the statistical margins are far closer than they were two years ago. Mobley contests more shots and is slightly better on the perimeter when he is asked to defend there. The all-in-one metrics show no significant difference between the two. They are justifiably favored.
But we haven’t covered a single top-five defense yet. The No. 1 ranked Thunder are historic on that end of the floor. They lead the league in steals and deflections while ranking sixth in both blocks and contested shots. They have the best defensive rating of the past five years and lead the second-place Clippers by nearly four points per 100 possessions. They have to have a candidate, right?
Well, Vegas has three of them to offer. Holmgren, Hartenstein and Alex Caruso are out. However, Lu Dort (+2200), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+2500) and Jalen Williams (+6000) are in.
Dort is the best defender of the three, frequently taking the most difficult matchup and making their life miserable. There’s a reason he’s nicknamed the “Dorture Chamber,” after all. Gilgeous-Alexander gets attacked on switches mostly because of how good his teammates are, but he’s held up perfectly, and he racks up valuable turnover stats like steals and deflections. Williams does a bit of everything and even played some center early in the season.
Of the three, Dort is the best bet. Voters have emphasized rewarding a single team in the past. That’s how Smart won in 2022. The Thunder might get that respect this year, and Dort is widely acknowledged as the team’s best perimeter defender. Williams is too subtle, and Gilgeous-Alexander is too known for his offense.
Sitting in third place on the board right now is Dyson Daniels at +450. His candidacy faces a number of serious problems at the moment, though. He plays for the No. 15 defense in the NBA, for example, and things only figure to get harder for the Hawks without Jalen Johnson down the stretch. Daniels still leads the league in deflections and steals, but the gaps aren’t as enormous as they once were. And while Atlanta’s status as a Play-In team is probably safe, the Hawks are also below .500 at 26-29.
If there’s a long shot that makes sense, it’s Amen Thompson of the Rockets at +6000. Houston’s defense ranks fourth, but unlike Dort, Thompson isn’t facing steep competition from his own teammates. Dillon Brooks might have an All-Defense case, but he’s not remotely on Thompson’s level, and Tari Eason doesn’t play enough minutes to be seriously considered. Thompson can defend almost every position and is the backbone of the NBA’s most surprising team this season.
Watch these lines closely in the coming days and weeks. A heavy betting favorite will emerge soon. For now, Vegas is playing this cautiously, giving Jackson, Mobley or others room to swoop in and take an award that didn’t seem available 24 hours ago.
