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Nearly 35 years ago, Detroit and Washington played for the right to go to the Super Bowl. Despite having all-world running back Barry Sanders, the Lions were no match against heavily favored Washington, which rolled to a 41-10 win en route to its third Super Bowl triumph.
The tables have turned for Saturday night’s playoff between the two teams. The Commanders have rookie phenom Jayden Daniels, but the deeper Lions are the decided favorite to beat Washington while clinching its second consecutive trip to the NFC Championship game. Something tells me, though, that this matchup will be much closer than the ’91 playoff game between Washington and Detroit.
Here’s how you can follow the action in real time, along with a full breakdown and a prediction for Saturday’s big game.
Where to watch Commanders vs. Lions
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 18 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
- TV: Fox | Live stream: fubo (click here)
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: Lions -9.5, OU 55.5 (via BetMGM)
When the Commanders have the ball
Washington’s offense has soared under first-year offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Under his watch, the Commanders boasted the NFL’s fifth-ranked scoring offense during the regular season. Washington was sixth in the league in both third-down and red zone efficiency.
Daniels’ rookie season has been nothing short of sensational. In addition to having one of the finest throwing performances a rookie quarterback has ever had, Daniels also led the Commanders with 891 rushing yards while averaging a whopping 6.0 yards per carry. Daniels’ 13 carries in last week’s wild-card win over the Buccaneers were the third-most he has had in a game this year. Expect more of the same against the Lions.
A big positive for Washington’s offense has been the emergence of the team’s complementary skill players, specifically tight end Zach Ertz and wideouts Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus. Their play has helped open things up for Pro Bowler Terry McLaurin, who caught seven passes for 89 yards against the Buccaneers that included a big touchdown on a fourth-and-goal play. Look for the Lions defense to focus on stopping “Scary Terry” while forcing Washington’s other playmakers to step up.
The Commanders’ running game has been a question mark, however. The team has had success running against weaker defenses but has struggled to do so against some of the league’s tougher units. Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. combined to run for just 43 yards on 18 carries against the Buccaneers. It’s safe to say that they’ll have to make a bigger impact on Saturday night if the Commanders are going to pull off the upset.
Defensively, the Lions received good news this week with cornerback Terrion Arnold cleared to play after the 2024 first-round pick injured his foot back in Week 18. It’ll be interesting to see if the Lions have Arnold travel with McLaurin in an attempt to minimize Washington’s top receiver.
The Lions defense was seventh in the NFL in points allowed this season. Detroit has sorely missed pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who has 3.5 more sacks than the unit’s second-leading sacker despite playing in only five games. Detroit, though, has somewhat made up for his absence by getting turnovers (led by safety Kerby Joseph’s nine picks) and getting off the field on possession downs. No defense was better on third down during the season than the Lions, who allowed opponents to convert on third down just 32.4% of the time.
On paper, one would think that the Commanders will have no chance at running the ball against the Lions’ fifth-ranked run defense and will instead try to attack what was the league’s 30th-ranked pass defense during the regular season. But those numbers hide the fact that Detroit was 22nd in the NFL in average yards-per-carry allowed and fifth in the league in interceptions recorded.
Daniels needs to have another big game, but Washington’s offense has to run the ball well enough to take some of the pressure off its young quarterback.
When the Lions have the ball
A juggernaut, the Lions offense scored more points than any other unit in football during the regular season. A big reason why was the play of Jared Goff, running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, and wideouts Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, who became the first quartet of teammates to each amass 1,000 all-purpose yards in the same year.
Montgomery has been cleared to face Washington after he missed the Lions’ last three games with a knee injury. In Montgomery’s absence, the Lions have received stellar performances from Gibbs, who has proven that he can carry the load if asked to do so. Gibbs, who led the NFL with 16 touchdown runs, ended the regular season with three consecutive 100-yard rushing performances.
Along with that quartet, the Lions have one of the league’s best tight ends in Sam Laporta and two solid veteran wideouts in Tim Patrick and Kalif Raymond. The Lions’ depth at the skill positions is one of the biggest reasons for their success. Two other reasons is offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s creativity and head coach Dan Campbell’s willingness to routinely go for it on fourth down. Expect the Lions attempt multiple fourth-down conversions against the Commanders.
Detroit’s offense will be without one key offensive player, though, as starting guard Kevin Zeitler (hamstring) has been ruled out. Christian Mahogany, a rookie sixth-round pick, is slated to make his second career start.
They weren’t a dominant unit, but Dan Quinn’s defense was good enough to help the Commanders win 12 games this season. Washington’s defense was third in the NFL this year against the pass, which is obviously a good sign for Saturday night. The Commanders defense is led by linebackers Dante Fowler (10.5 sacks), Frankie Luvu (eight sacks and 99 tackles) and Bobby Wagner, a future Hall of Famer who had a massive fumble recovery in last week’s win in Tampa.
Defenses have to pick their poison against the Lions offense; they’re simply too talented of a group to contain everyone. Look for the Lions to focus on exploiting Mahoney’s inexperience, pressuring Goff and jamming Detroit’s receivers at the line of scrimmage in an effort to disrupt their timing. Washington, by virtue of its front seven, is one of the few teams that can contain the Lions’ running game without sacrificing too much in the secondary. Washington just needs to make sure that Montgomery’s and Gibbs’ big plays are held to a minimum.
Prediction
The Lions don’t play dull postseason games. Each of their three playoff games last year came down to the wire, and I expect that to again be the case on Saturday night. Washington will make them earn it, but the Lions should come out on top while getting to within a game of the Super Bowl.
Look for fourth downs on both sides to help determine the outcome of this game. Both teams aren’t scared to go for it in those situations, which will lead to some heart-stopping moments for both fan bases.
Pick: Lions 31, Commanders 27
