Cooper Flagg gets his first crack at writing a chapter in the Duke basketball vs. UNC rivalry on Saturday (6:30 p.m., ESPN) at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Off to their best start in ACC play since the 2007-08 season, the second-ranked Blue Devils (18-2, 10-0 ACC) have the nation’s longest winning streak at 14 games. With losses in three of their last four games, the Tar Heels (13-9, 6-4) are struggling and in need of a marquee win to boost their NCAA Tournament chances.
Duke and UNC have split the last four meetings in the series. Jon Scheyer’s first squad swept UNC in his debut season as head coach and Hubert Davis’ club won both games last season. The Tar Heels are 2-1 at Cameron Indoor Stadium under Davis.
Here are some other things to know and a score prediction for the 263rd game between Duke and UNC.
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Duke freshmen Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, Khaman Maluach, Isaiah Evans vs UNC
The last time Duke had at least three freshmen in its starting lineup, the Blue Devils swept UNC in Scheyer’s first year as head coach. In the last 10 seasons, Duke has a 7-7 record against UNC when the Blue Devils have at least three freshmen in the starting lineup. Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach will have a chance to snag win No. 8 on Saturday.
Projected as the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, Flagg averaged 25.4 points on 58.2% shooting, 7.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists in a 7-0 January for the Blue Devils. Following a scoreless game at Boston College, Knueppel has averaged 17 points and 7 rebounds in the last two games.
Maluach, Duke’s 7-foot-2 center, has seen his minutes increase because of Maliq Brown’s injury. He had a pair of double-double performances in January and his length will be key against a smaller UNC frontcourt. Then there’s Isaiah Evans, who could be an X-factor off the bench for the Blue Devils as a 47.3% shooter from 3-point range. Following a pair of scoreless games, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Evans get going from deep against UNC.
RJ Davis, Ian Jackson scoring for Tar Heels
If UNC is going to pull off the upset, the Tar Heels’ path starts with big games from guards RJ Davis and Ian Jackson. Davis has a 6-3 record against the Blue Devils, but he’s averaged 12.1 points across those nine games. The fifth-year guard will have to take it up a notch in his final trip to Cameron.
Ian Jackson, one of UNC’s top scorers as a freshman, has seven games with 20 or more points. The Tar Heels are 5-2 when Jackson reaches that number, but the Bronx guard hasn’t reached double figures in three of the last four games. The Heels lost all three.
Fast-break points for UNC, Duke
The Tar Heels like to get it and go, the Blue Devils like to play at a more deliberate pace. UNC is 18th in adjusted tempo and Duke is 250th, making pace another path for the Tar Heels to pull off an upset. Through 22 games, UNC is 30th nationally in fast-break points (14.5). Duke is third nationally in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com, so the Heels need to get what they can in the open court.
HISTORY OF UNC UPSET CHANCES:UNC basketball is a big underdog at Duke. Here’s what history says about the Tar Heels’ upset chances
Duke allowed 10 fast-break points in each of its two losses. Wake Forest had a 12-2 advantage in fast-break points and N.C. State had 10 points on the break in the Blue Devils’ last two scares. But that tempo has also back-fired on several opponents because of Duke’s elite defense. The Blue Devils had a season-high 25 fast-break points against the Wolfpack, outscored Auburn 16-0 in that category and finished with a 12-3 edge at Louisville.
Duke vs UNC score prediction
Duke 75, UNC 65: This rivalry is anything but predictable. With that being said, the Blue Devils have forged an identity that makes them one of the favorites to win a national championship. The Tar Heels have formed an identity that has them in danger of missing March Madness. After back-to-back losses to UNC, Duke will get it done with Cooper Flagg and Co. in the latest battle of the blues.
Rodd Baxley covers Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding those teams? Send them to [email protected].
