Auburn’s quest for a national championship continues Saturday night when it faces Creighton in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
The No. 1 overall seed Tigers (29-5 SU, 17-16-1 ATS) defeated No. 16 Alabama State 83-63 in Thursday’s first round, failing to cover as 32-point favorites. No. 9 seed Creighton (25-10 SU, 20-13-2 ATS) used a huge first half to beat No. 8 Louisville 89-75, covering as 2.5-point underdogs.
Auburn is 2-3 overall and 0-5 ATS in its last five games. The only thing that matters to the teams in March Madness is winning straight up, but the ATS slide suggests Auburn is not playing to its potential. Will that change against Creighton at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky.?
The Tigers are 9- or 9.5-point favorites Saturday, and the over/under is 150.5 to 151.5 points, according to the best March Madness betting sites. Here are our Creighton vs. Auburn predictions, picks and best bets for the second round of March Madness.
Creighton vs. Auburn predictions and best bets for Round of 32
Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find while writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
College basketball fans will learn a lot about the 2024-25 Auburn Tigers and coach Bruce Pearl on Saturday night.
Will this team snap a three-year streak of first- or second-round tournament exits? Or will this team fall victim to its late-season slump once and for all?
Auburn scored a comfortable victory over Alabama State on Thursday, but the Hornets were within one point in the closing minutes of the first half — far from what Auburn could have done and needs to do Saturday. Creighton, meanwhile, steamrolled an under-seeded Louisville team.
If you want to bet on the hotter team, bet on Creighton. This point spread feels way too big.
While Auburn has struggled recently to advance in March Madness, Creighton has a strong track record of winning tournament games. Coach Greg McDermott has led the Blue Jays to the Sweet 16 three of the past four seasons, including one trip to the Elite 8.
Led by center Ryan Kalkbrenner, this team has plenty of postseason experience. It will not be intimidated by Auburn.
Among the players Auburn will need to play well is Miles Kelly. Kelly carried the Tigers against Alabama State with 23 points on 7-of-15 shooting from behind the arc. The performance was not an outlier.
Kelly has shot at least 40% from the field in six of the last seven games and has scored at least 12 points in those six games. In that span, he is 26 for 59 (44.1%) from 3-point range.
It’s noteworthy that Auburn’s first- and second-round games are at Rupp Arena — the home of the Kentucky Wildcats. In Auburn’s win at Kentucky on March 1, Kelly shot 9-of-14 from 3-point range on his way to a season-high 30 points, meaning his best two scoring performances this season have come at Rupp Arena. How about one more Saturday?
You can even bet Kelly to score 20+ points at +570 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Creighton vs. Auburn moneyline odds analysis
Why Auburn could win as the favorite
Best odds: -450 at BetMGM Sportsbook
When Auburn is at its best, it is the best team in college basketball. The Tigers showed that form for most of the season, which is why they are the No. 1 overall seed. They have not played to that level in the last few weeks, but if they turn it on they can run through Creighton and the rest of the South Region to the Final Four.
Coach Bruce Pearl may not have the most sterling NCAA Tournament record, but he’s too good not to get the most out of one of the best teams he’s had. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers play one of their best games in a spot some may be counting them out.
Why Creighton could win as the underdog
Best odds: +360 at Caesars Sportsbook
Momentum matters in the NCAA Tournament, and Creighton has plenty of it. With five wins in their last six games, the Blue Jays feel great about the way they’re playing.
Creighton played two games against SEC foes this season — one a 4-point loss to Texas A&M and the other an 8-point loss to Alabama. The Blue Jays are tested against top teams and have won big tournament games. All they must do is stay within striking distance and make a few plays down the stretch.
