Welcome home, Todd Golden. Well, potentially.
The third-year Florida coach has established himself in the Southeast, but his roots are in the West. Golden, 39, grew up and attended high school in Phoenix. He played collegiately at Saint Mary’s in California. His first head-coaching job was at San Francisco. If all goes well, he can springboard into the Final Four from the same city.
The top-seeded Gators, who just won the SEC tournament by an average of 15 points, open in Raleigh, N.C., against Norfolk State. If they win, a potential matchup against Dan Hurley and two-time reigning champ UConn awaits in the second round. In the bottom of the bracket? Bill Self and Kansas, John Calipari and Arkansas as well as Rick Pitino and St. John’s.
That might not be the ultimate Mount Rushmore of college coaching, but it’s not far off. Hurley and Self have each won two national titles. Pitino and Calipari have each taken three programs to the Final Four. Golden is in a region of legends. This could be his breakout moment. But it won’t be easy. — Doug Haller
Read on for a full rundown of the region.
1. Florida (30-4, 14-4 SEC)
Coach: Todd Golden (0-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Walter Clayton Jr. (First-team All-SEC)
BetMGM title odds: +350
Sweet 16 projected chance: 81.7%
Final Four projected chance: 41.4%
Todd Golden is one of the most analytical coaches in America, and he has leaned all the way into the idea of building a team that shoots 3-pointers, gets dunks and pounds the offensive glass. The guards are as good as any in the country, and you’d be hard-pressed to find any team that has five bigs capable of playing at a Final Four-level like Florida has. Its 30-point win against Tennessee wasn’t a fluke. It went into Auburn and beat up the Tigers. That wasn’t an accident. This team is matchup-proof and talented enough that the goal of winning a national title is certainly within reach. — Rob Dauster
2. St. John’s (30-4, 18-2 Big East)
Coach: Rick Pitino (54-21 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: RJ Luis Jr. (First-team All-Big East)
BetMGM title odds: +2200
Sweet 16 projected chance: 67.1%
Final Four projected chance: 16.2%
St. John’s is not a team that wins with offensive efficiency. It wins with volume. Pitino’s entire concept for this squad is creating the biggest advantage possible in the number of offensive possessions. He wants to win the battle of the backboards, getting stops and creating as many second-chance opportunities as possible. He wants to force turnovers, not only to get extra shots but also to turn live-ball turnovers into layups, which allow the Red Storm to get into their press and create more turnovers. They will feast on teams that don’t have strong guard play. The other reason to trust St. John’s is Kadary Richmond and Luis. They might not be the most efficient offensive weapons, but they are as clutch as anyone in the nation. Mid-range jumpers might be bad shots in theory, but there is no such thing as a bad shot when the shot goes in. — Dauster
Rick Pitino and the new kings of New York
3. Texas Tech (25-8, 15-5 Big 12)
Coach: Grant McCasland (1-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: JT Toppin (First-team All-Big 12)
BetMGM title odds: +3500
Sweet 16 projected chance: 62.2%
Final Four projected chance: 16.3%
Texas Tech is really dangerous. Hawkins and Toppin are the engines that make the Red Raiders go. Chance McMillian has developed into one of the best shooters in college basketball, having logged multiple games with at least five 3-pointers, and Darrion Williams is another unsung hero. The do-it-all forward is second on the team in assists (four per game), can score 20 points on any given night and has developed into an elite connector. Texas Tech does not have the most NBA talent and won’t be the trendy pick to make a run out of the Big 12, but teams that defend, make 3s and don’t beat themselves are the squads that play into April. The Red Raiders are Final Four good, and I’m not sure how many people realize that. — Dauster
4. Maryland (25-8, 14-6 Big Ten)
Coach: Kevin Willard (2-6 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Derik Queen (First-team All-Big Ten)
BetMGM title odds: +5000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 58%
Final Four projected chance: 10.5%
Thought to be competitive, though not a Big Ten contender, in the preseason, Maryland has greatly exceeded expectations. It enters the postseason sizzling on all fronts. Its execution throughout February and early March was generally clean and highly efficient. As someone who holds a betting slip for the Terps to visit the Alamo and the Final Four at +1300, I don’t need to be convinced of their potential. Willard has the warriors to cash this wagering enthusiast’s ticket. They unquestionably have the goods to bloody nonbelievers’ brackets. — Brad Evans
5. Memphis (29-5, 16-2 AAC)
Coach: Penny Hardaway (1-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: PJ Haggerty (First-team All-AAC)
BetMGM title odds: +15000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 13.4%
Final Four projected chance: 1%
The NCAA Tournament is based on matchups, draws, and a little bit of luck. If you are a No. 3 seed in a region where the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds get upset in the first weekend, you’re lucky. If you end up in a region with a bunch of teams you match up well against, you have a better chance of making a deep run than someone who doesn’t. Memphis is a team that, on paper, looks to be matchup-dependent. Texas A&M, St. John’s, Houston and teams of that ilk can give the Tigers some problems. At the same time, they have three players on the perimeter who are capable of winning a game all on their own. Wins against Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson and Ole Miss weren’t flukes. A Final Four is a big ask, but Memphis certainly can make some noise and get to a second weekend. — Dauster
6. Missouri (22-11, 10-8 SEC)
Coach: Dennis Gates (1-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Mark Mitchell (Third-team All-SEC)
BetMGM title odds: +8000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 23.4%
Final Four projected chance: 3.6%
I am bullish on the Tigers’ chances to make a run in the NCAA Tournament, largely because their defense is better than the numbers indicate. Missouri switches up defensive game plans as much as any team in the nation. The Tigers can play straight-up man defense, and they can deploy Mitchell as a small-ball five or as a three in a much bigger lineup. They are going to be one of the most difficult teams to prepare for on a short turnaround because of how they can confuse opponents defensively. When you combine the defensive versatility with one of America’s most explosive offenses, this group can beat anyone. Ask Alabama. Ask Florida. — Dauster
How Dennis Gates flipped Mizzou from an 0-18 SEC nightmare to the top 15
7. Kansas (21-12, 11-9 Big 12)
Coach: Bill Self (57-23 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Hunter Dickinson (First-team All-Big 12)
BetMGM title odds: +6000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 21.8%
Final Four projected chance: 2.7%
Kansas won’t make much noise in the NCAA Tournament. That feels like an odd thing to say about a Self squad with a serial winner at the point and one of the nation’s best five-men. But that’s where the Jayhawks stand. The saving grace is that they fared well in nonconference play. They beat North Carolina at home and defeated Michigan State and Duke on neutral courts. Their losses came against a full-strength Creighton squad and a very good Missouri team, both in true road settings. There might be something to the argument that Big 12 teams, which know Kansas inside and out, have more success than opponents trying to learn what Self does on a short turnaround. I will not be buying that excuse. Fade the Jayhawks. — Dauster
Hunter Dickinson thriving in ‘new’ Kansas season, offering hope for a memorable March
8. UConn (23-10, 14-6 Big East)
Coach: Dan Hurley (14-4 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Liam McNeeley (Third-team All-Big East)
BetMGM title odds: +5000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 14.9%
Final Four projected chance: 3.3%
UConn has to be great offensively if it is going to have a chance to get to the second weekend, and the Huskies finally look like themselves on that end of the floor after a rough start to the new year. They ranked closer to top 50 than top five in offensive efficiency in 2025, according to Bart Torvik, and a big reason was just a simple lack of toughness. If they are not firing on all cylinders offensively, they are average. UConn is good enough to win a game it is supposed to win, but I do not expect the Huskies to be able to upset one of the top seeds in the tournament. The dream of a three-peat won’t last past the first weekend. — Dauster
A fireside chat with Dan Hurley: In UConn’s quest for a dynasty, can the Huskies stand the smoke?
9. Oklahoma (20-13, 6-12 SEC)
Coach: Porter Moser (6-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Jeremiah Fears (SEC All-Freshman Team)
BetMGM title odds: +50000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 3.2%
Final Four projected chance: 0.3%
Having potentially the best player on the court at any given moment from the guard spot could give OU some juice. But with the way the Sooners have struggled to piece together wins in the SEC, they could be an early flameout. Well, unless Fears goes nuclear. — Sam Lance
10. Arkansas (20-13, 8-10 SEC)
Coach: John Calipari (57-22 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Zvonimir Ivisic (2 blocks per game)
BetMGM title odds: +25000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 9.9%
Final Four projected chance: 0.8%
The Razorbacks feel like a classic Calipari team, one that oozes talent but gets bogged down by offensive inconsistencies. They can use their length and athleticism to suffocate opponents, but it doesn’t matter if they can’t score. If Arkansas can figure out its offense, it has Sweet 16 potential. But I’m not expecting the Hogs to defy the odds. — Lance
Will anything change in John Calipari’s final fight?
11. Drake (30-3, 17-3 MVC)
Coach: Ben McCollum (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Bennett Stirtz (MVC Player of the Year)
BetMGM title odds: +50000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 12.2%
Final Four projected chance: 1.3%
Similar in style to the Houston Cougars, Drake blankets the hardwood in the half court, leaning on its exceptional defense and rebounding. The patient Bulldogs are extremely disciplined in their execution. Having upended Kansas State and Vanderbilt in nonconference play, they won’t be intimidated by the name emblazoned on the opponent’s jersey. Advancing multiple bracket lines isn’t unfathomable. — Evans
Drake brought D-II stars to D-I, then started winning. Can it last?
12. Colorado State (25-9, 16-4 MWC)
Coach: Niko Medved (1-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Nique Clifford (First-team All-Mountain West)
BetMGM title odds: +50000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 23.6%
Final Four projected chance: 2.3%
For teams firmly sitting on the bubble, Colorado State’s automatic berth triggered tears. An 11th-hour entrant, the Rams shouldn’t be taken lightly. Clifford is a pro — a top NBA prospect who is projected to be drafted in the first round. Overall, with a penchant for 3-point bombardments and glass waxings, CSU could be a Sweet 16 sleeper. — Evans
13. Grand Canyon (26-7, 13-3 WAC)
Coach: Bryce Drew (1-6 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: JaKobe Coles (First-team All-WAC)
BetMGM title odds: +100000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 4.9%
Final Four projected chance: 0.2%
Everyone remembers the famous Bryce Drew shot that sunk Ole Miss during his playing days at Valparaiso. GCU’s current head honcho is hoping for another memorable March moment. His Lopes are one of the field’s stiffest defensive squads. On the season, they rank No. 20 nationally in effective field goal percentage defense, conceding a mere 46.4 percent on 2s and 32.1 percent on 3s. They also thrive on unforced errors. Over 20 percent of opponent possessions resulted in a turnover. Trotting out a sizable front court for a mid-major at 6-7 (Tyon Grant-Foster), 6-8 (Coles) and 6-10 (Duke Brennan), the Phoenix area reps can hang with high majors on the glass. Self-inflicted mistakes, however, hindered it often and it will need to ramp up its arc execution (31.5 3-point percentage), but Grand Canyon’s stupendous defense and consistent free-throw conversions have it in play to potentially bloody brackets. — Evans
14. UNC Wilmington (27-7, 14-4 CAA)
Coach: Takayo Siddle (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Donovan Newby (Second-team All-CAA)
BetMGM title odds: +100000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 2.2%
Final Four projected chance: 0.09%
Third time’s the charm for Takayo Siddle, who won at least 20 games for the fourth straight season. After losing in the CAA title game in 2022 and 2023, he’s broken through and firmly planted himself as one of the hottest names in this year’s coaching carousel. The star is point guard Newby. In his third season in Wilmington, he took a leap this year, as did Khamari McGriff, who moved into the starting lineup when Josh Corbin went down. But the beauty of this team is their depth and next-man-up mentality. Eight guys play more than 19 minutes — McGriff, the team’s second-leading scorer, plays the fewest minutes of any rotation player. Sean Moore was a part of the FDU team that beat Purdue. Bo Montgomery is averaging 15.5 points in four games in March. Noah Ross had 14 in the win over Delaware in the CAA title game. There is one concern with this group, however: Much of the reason they have a top 85 offense is because of their work in the paint and on the offensive glass. Can that translate against elite high-major competition? — Dauster
15. Omaha (22-12, 13-3 Summit)
Coach: Chris Crutchfield (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Marquel Sutton (Summit League Player of the Year)
BetMGM title odds: +100000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 1%
Final Four projected chance: 0.02%
Surely Peyton Manning’s favorite team next to Tennessee, Omaha punched its ticket for the first time in program history. As witnessed in their bid-clinching victory over South Dakota — they annihilated the Coyotes 100-75 — JJ White and cohorts can seriously scorch the nets. If stroking the rock smoothly, the Summit representatives can hang. They enter the March showcase in the top 100 in several offensive categories, including points per possession scored (1.116) and 3-point percentage (36.7 percent). Also noteworthy, the Mavericks feature three players 6-8 or taller in the starting lineup. Unlike many mid-majors, they possess the competitive size, versatility and arc accuracy to possibly scare a high seed. Yes, given the Mavs’ 290-plus rank in effective field-goal percentage defense, guarding is optional. Still, it’s hard to completely write off the spread-covering machine (23-9 ATS this year). — Evans
How a defenseless trash can inspired Omaha basketball’s midseason run
16. Norfolk State (24-10, 11-3 MEAC)
Coach: Robert Jones (1-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Brian Moore Jr. (First-team All-MEAC)
BetMGM title odds: +100000
Sweet 16 projected chance: 0.2%
Final Four projected chance: 0%
Robert Jones is the most underrated coach in the mid-major ranks. He has won either the MEAC regular-season or tournament title in five of the last seven years. This is his third trip to the NCAA Tournament, an event the Spartans have had success in — they won as a 15 seed in 2012. Brian Moore Jr. is one of the more dynamic mid-major guards, and Christian Ings is a 25-year-old sixth-year senior making his second trip to the dance. Those two are dangerous. The problem is the Spartans struggle in three key areas: They can’t shoot 3s, they turn the ball over too much and they get smoked on the defensive glass. Losing the possessions battle without making 3-pointers is a difficult recipe to use to pull off an upset. — Dauster
(Photos of Walter Clayton Jr. and RJ Luis Jr.: Johnnie Izquierdo, Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
