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Alabama’s 93-91 overtime win over Auburn did not knock the Tigers out of their position as the overall No. 1 seed in the Bracketology updated NCAA Tournament bracket projection, but it did keep the Crimson Tide in the hunt for the fourth No. 1 seed.
Auburn and Duke are locks for the top line and it would take a bad loss of some sort to jeopardize Houston’s place, but the Cougars should be in good shape.
The fourth No. 1 spot will come down to four teams: Florida, Tennessee and Alabama from the SEC and Michigan State. I believe that if one of the three SEC teams wins the conference tournament, that team will be the fourth No. 1 seed. If none of them win it, that opens the door for the Spartans to make a run at the top line.
College basketball rankings: Auburn remains on top ahead of Duke despite two-game losing streak
Michigan State currently has 11 Quad 1 wins, tied with Alabama for second behind Auburn’s 16. The Spartans would have to win the Big Ten Tournament, of course, and it would help to get the best teams they can play along the way. That could give Michigan State as many as 14 Quad 1 wins, the vast majority of which would be against NCAA Tournament teams. Certainly, the Spartans would get serious consideration for a No. 1 seed by the selection committee.
Bracketology top seeds
Check out Palm’s bracket and full field of 68 at the Bracketology hub.
Buckeyes fall off bracket
Ohio State fell off the bottom of the bracket following a loss at Indiana in the regular season finale and are now just 17-14. The Buckeyes, the first team out as of Sunday, are likely at a place where it would take two wins in the Big Ten Tournament to end up with a good enough record to get selected.
Only two teams have been selected as an at-large team that were fewer than four games above .500. In 2001, Georgia played a schedule that would have had 27 of its 30 games in Quads 1 and 2 if the term “quadrant” was used by the committee back then. There have always been four groups of games on teams’ tournament profiles, but they weren’t called quadrants until the home-road-neutral component was added. Michigan got a berth in 2022 at 17-14, but only had three Quad 4 games.
Ohio State has six wins vs. Quad 4, which puts it three games below .500 against the top three quadrants. No team with that mark has gotten an at-large bid, although the committee does not look at that number specifically. It makes sense that a team with a profile like that would always fall short.
Palm readings
- One of the best stories of the season has been the rise of St. John’s. The Red Storm are 27-4, which is a great mark, but have had trouble climbing above a No. 3 seed in my projected bracket. St. John’s picked up just their fourth Quad 1 win of the season at Marquette, which completed a season sweep of the Golden Eagles. The Red Storm are the only team in the top four seeds with fewer than six Quad 1 wins. The lack of higher quality wins is why even getting to a No. 2 seed could be challenging, but if they win the Big East Tournament, that would be a likely landing place.
- Texas is in an even bigger hole – one they do not look like it can climb out of. The Longhorns are 17-14, 10-14 when you throw out Quad 4 games. If they win enough games this week to be an at-large team, they will be the SEC Tournament champion and win the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
- Nebraska has one more chance Sunday in the regular season to salvage some hope for an at-large bid. That is probably too optimistic given that they have already lost at home to Rutgers, USC and Minnesota.
