Bitcoin continued its downward slide, falling below $80,000 on Thursday night. The leading crypto is 25% down from its all-time high that was reached just a month ago during Donald Trump’s inauguration.
It recovered slightly on Friday morning, hovering around $82,000. However, investor sentiment remains pessimistic as the Trump-led crypto rally appears to be over. The prevailing question now is: How much lower can Bitcoin go?
“The worst case scenario would be that Bitcoin would drop to the $72,000-74,000 range,” said Sid Powell, CEO & Co-Founder of Maple, an institutional capital marketplace built on the blockchain.
In an email to Quartz, Powell explained that, according to technical analysis, a breakdown below a prolonged range typically results in a significant decline.
“If Bitcoin is in the $90,000-1000,000 range, as we’ve seen over the last few months, it would have the potential to slide to $70,000.”
But why is Bitcoin experiencing such a significant downturn?
The latest decline may be linked to a crypto hack targeting a Dubai-based exchange named Bybit. On Feb. 21, 2025, attackers — allegedly the North Korean state-sponsored Lazarus Group — stole approximately $1.4 billion in crypto assets from the exchange’s wallet. Adding to market jitters, the recent memecoin scandal involving Argentina’s President Javier Milei has reignited skepticism and negative sentiment among investors, further weighing on the crypto market.
Furthermore, macroeconomic factors are at play, with Bitcoin and the entire crypto market facing pressure from the ongoing tariff war. Amid rising trade tensions, there was a broad risk-off decline across all markets, but, as Powell noted, the crypto market has been hit the hardest.
“There’s a lot of nervousness from investors on how U.S. tariffs could impact the broader landscape and the excitement over the new administration fading now that Trump has been in office for some time,” he added.
Bitcoin ETFs continue facing massive outflows
Once hailed as the most successful exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in history, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant withdrawals in recent weeks. Excluding two positive days, they have recorded net outflows totaling $3.7 billion this month. On Tuesday, Feb. 25th, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a record outflow of over $1 billion in a single day.
This sustained outflow is naturally putting pressure on Bitcoin’s price, signaling that investors are no longer pouring in funds at the same pace as before.
Read more: Bitcoin is better than gold. Here’s why
Perhaps the SEC will bring Bitcoin back on track
Powell believes that the Trump rally has certainly faded and that positive actions from policymakers could help improve the state of the crypto market.
In recent weeks, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has emerged as a big supporter of the crypto industry — a shift that seemed unimaginable just a few years ago.
For example, on Thursday, the SEC stated that most memecoins, such as Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, are not securities under U.S. federal law. The financial watchdog explained that memecoins have limited or no functionality and are “more akin to collectibles.”
However, the SEC’s latest stance did little to boost memecoin prices, as negative sentiment weighed on the broader crypto market.
Earlier this month, the SEC, led by Hester Peirce, dropped cases against Coinbase, Robinhood, and other crypto companies that had been accused of selling unregistered securities, marking a notable shift in the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies.
“If the SEC continues to loosen its grip and we see more pro-crypto laws put in place, Bitcoin can pull back, and we’ll see another positive moment in the market once again,” he added.
