CNN —
A cross-country storm is strengthening as it moves over the central United States Friday and pounding the region with damaging hurricane-force wind gusts that are creating a blinding dust storm and fanning flames amid a “catastrophic” fire risk.
It’s the opening act of an exceptionally dangerous weekend of extreme weather for millions, including the chance of multiple strong tornadoes that prompted a rare highest risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday.
Here are the latest updates:
• Rare highest risk for tornadoes: A rare level 5 of 5 high risk of severe thunderstorms was issued Friday afternoon in Mississippi and Alabama for Saturday for a “likely tornado outbreak,” according to the Storm Prediction Center. It’s a threat level reminiscent of past deadly storms. High risk days are only used when forecasters are very confident that the necessary atmospheric ingredients for severe thunderstorms are in place and will produce widespread, dangerous storms. They’ve occurred on less than 1% days over the past 25 years, according to a CNN analysis of NOAA data.
• Violent tornadoes possible: Saturday’s tornadoes could be “violent” the SPC warned, EF4 or stronger, and be capable of lasting long distances, increasing the chance for destruction. Only 1% of all tornadoes get this strong, but they account for an outsized 66% of all tornado deaths, according to the SPC.
• Hurricane-force wind gusts ongoing: Winds greater than 80 mph whipped across the Southern Plains on Friday, toppling trucks, trees and power lines. More than 100,000 homes and businesses were without power in Texas and Oklahoma amid the fierce winds and dust storms, according to PowerOutage.us.
• Fires force evacuations: Fast-spreading fires started popping up in Texas and Oklahoma Friday afternoon, pushed by strong winds amid bone-dry conditions. A fire was forcing evacuations in Leedey, Oklahoma, according to the NWS. Evacuations were also ongoing in Lake Tanglewood, Texas, just outside of Amarillo, according to the Randall County Sheriff’s Office.
Severe thunderstorms will intensify and become more ferocious late Friday afternoon in the Midwest and could potentially strike more than 900 miles of the region – from Louisiana to Minnesota – through the overnight hours as they race east.
A level 4 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms is in place Friday for more than 11 million people across the region from central Iowa to northern Mississippi, including Des Moines, St. Louis and Memphis, Tennessee.
A lower but still significant level 3 of 5 risk is in place in the surrounding areas and could impact cities such as Chicago, Kansas City and Jackson, Mississippi, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Damaging winds will be widespread, with some storms producing hurricane-strength gusts up to 100 mph within the level 3 and 4 risk areas.
A lower threat of severe storms spreads from Louisiana, including New Orleans, to Minnesota, including Minneapolis.
This line of severe thunderstorms will continue its trek east and is expected to last through the overnight hours, adding greater danger as these storms can be more difficult to spot. The weather could go from calm to violent thunderstorms in a matter of minutes in the line’s path, leaving anyone caught in the storms with little time to react.
“Ensure you have multiple ways to receive warnings, including a way to be alerted if you are sleeping,” the National Weather Service in Central Illinois urged Thursday. “Know where you would take shelter in the event that a warning is issued.”
Tornadoes and hail are also possible. The greatest risk for tornadoes, some of which could be strong – rated EF2 or higher – is for more than 6 million people from western Illinois and southeastern Missouri south through northwestern Tennessee and into northern Mississippi and includes St. Louis and Memphis.
Forecasters were unusually confident in the threat.
“It is worth noting that there are very few failure modes that would throw this forecast into doubt, lending credence to the severity of this situation,” the NWS office in St. Louis said. “Today may end up as one of the more prolific severe weather outbreaks in recent memory in the bi-state (Missouri and Illinois) region.”
Failure modes, broadly speaking, are ways a system or product could fail – in this case, a forecast. The service is warning there are only a few situations today that could cause weather conditions to change enough to avoid the severe outbreak.
But the threat for strong tornadoes stretches well beyond there, from southern Mississippi and Alabama north to northern Illinois and Iowa late Friday and overnight. This timing adds to the dangers: Nighttime tornadoes are nearly twice as likely to be deadly as those occurring during the day, a 2022 study found.
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey issued a state of emergency for the entire state due to the threat of severe weather on both Friday and Saturday.
Saturday will be even more dangerous than Friday for tornadoes, according to the Storm Prediction Center. It is pinpointing the South as the area where “a particularly volatile scenario for destructive severe (storms)” could occur.
Severe thunderstorms could be ongoing early Saturday morning after Friday’s activity, but after a short break, the most dangerous thunderstorms will intensify or develop by the afternoon in the South.
“Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening” for central and southern parts of Mississippi and Alabama, the SPC warned.
A level 5 of 5 high risk is in place for nearly 3 million people in Mississippi and Alabama, including Jackson and Birmingham. This is the first high risk issued for severe thunderstorms since last May and only the fifth in the past five years.
How the climate crisis may be changing the way tornadoes behave
A level 4 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms surrounds the high risk area and stretches from eastern Louisiana, including New Orleans, into western Georgia, and also includes the extreme western Florida Panhandle. A level 3 of 5 risk of severe storms surrounds the level 4 area and includes cities like Atlanta and Nashville.
In addition to the tornado threat, thunderstorms will once again deliver damaging wind gusts and hail through the evening and into early Sunday morning.
Severe thunderstorms will push east Sunday and mainly deliver heavy rain and damaging winds to much of the East Coast.
Powerful winds were sweeping across the central US Friday, with wind gusts up to 90 mph possible from the late morning through the evening in parts of New Mexico and the Plains.
These wind gusts were as strong as a Category 1 hurricane in short bursts and could do plenty of damage.
“Dangerous winds and blowing dust are causing LOTS of issues out there, including accidents, downed power lines and low visibility,” the NWS in Amarillo warned late Monday morning. Semi-trucks are also being blown over from the winds, according to the service.
The winds are also ramping up another threat: fire.
Extremely critical, level 3 of 3 fire weather conditions are in place Friday from Texas through Kansas, according to the Storm Prediction Center.
“Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions” are expected, and a wildfire outbreak is possible across parts of the Southern Plains, according to the center.
Any spark could quickly turn into a wind-driven inferno, especially with drought conditions and very dry fuels rampant in the risk area.
A rare, “particularly dangerous situation” fire warning was issued for parts of Kansas by the National Weather Service office in Wichita, warning of “catastrophic grassland fire danger” due to the extreme conditions.
“This is a particularly dangerous situation where a risk of property damage or loss of life could occur,” the office said.
The northern, colder side of the powerful storm will come with its own set of problems. Snow – possibly mixed with ice at times – will fall in the north-central US starting Friday night.
Only a few inches of snow will fall in most spots through Saturday but the storm’s powerful winds will cause plenty of blowing and drifting, culminating in blizzard conditions for some.
These conditions can make it difficult or even impossible to see more than a few feet into the distance. A blizzard last week shut down highways, stranded vehicles and caused crashes across multiple states.
It will be weather whiplash for some places, including Minneapolis: The city could see severe thunderstorms on Friday night transition to snow as temperatures plummet Saturday.
This is a developing story and will be updated.
