Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
“I don’t think there are a lot of Americans who wake up in the morning saying, ‘Oh, damn Canada. Oh, we should really go after Canada,'” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remarked Saturday, encapsulating the shell shock many north of the border are now feeling.
Why it matters: The U.S. is indeed going after Canada. The 25% tariffs President Trump announced on Canada and Mexico — which will likely plunge our northern neighbor into recession — have united Canadians of all political stripes in indignation.
One sign of that sentiment: Canadian sports fans have started booing the U.S. national anthem.
- Another: Canada’s previously Trump-friendly opposition leader and likely future prime minister, Pierre Poilievre, demanded Sunday that Canada “Retaliate with dollar-for-dollar tariffs,” “defend our sovereignty” and “never back down” to Trump.
- Neither Trump’s rationale for the tariffs, nor his preferred outcome — Canada’s annexation as the 51st U.S. state — make much sense to Canadians.
Data: U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Chart: Axios Visuals
Breaking it down: Trump justified the tariffs on national security grounds — namely that migrants and fentanyl are pouring across the northern border.
- However, less than 1% of fentanyl seized in the U.S. last year was entering through Canada.
- The number of undocumented migrants detained at the U.S.-Canada border has been rising, but only to around 6% of all such encounters reported by Customs and Border Patrol since 2022.
- Particularly galling for Canadians: Trump invoked national security to invoke 10% tariffs on a U.S. adversary, China, and 25% on arguably its closest ally.
Driving the news: Trudeau declared more than $100 billion in retaliatory tariffs in a televised address on Saturday night that included appeals to Americans’ wallets and their heartstrings.
- “Tariffs against Canada will put your jobs at risk,” he warned.
- “From the beaches of Normandy to the mountains of the Korean Peninsula, from the fields of Flanders to the streets of Kandahar, we have fought and died alongside you during your darkest hours,” he lamented.
- Trudeau also advised Canadians to reject American products in solidarity.
Between the lines: For most Americans, the trade war will likely manifest mostly through higher prices on certain goods, such as lumber (and by extension, homebuilding). Canadian oil is subject to a lower tariff, to limit any rise in gas prices.
- For Canada, which sends 75% of its exports to the U.S., the economic peril is greater.
- Trump is well aware of that dynamic.
What they’re saying: “We don’t need anything they have,” Trump claimed, contending that without the help of the U.S., Canada “ceases to exist as a viable Country.”
- “Harsh but true! Therefore, Canada should become our Cherished 51st State,” he taunted.
- Vice President Vance also portrayed Canada as a friendly freeloader, taking advantage of its proximity to the U.S. while not hitting NATO’s 2% spending target.
- “Spare me the sob story about how Canada is our ‘best friend.”
What’s next: Trump plans to speak with Trudeau and Mexican officials today.
The bottom line: If you had to pick a country to share a 5,000-mile border with, you could hardly do better than Canada. But Trump is proving that even the closest of friendships can turn frosty.
