LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 06: Islam Makhachev of Russia is seen on stage during the UFC 311 press … [+] conference at MGM Grand Garden Arena on December 06, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
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Saturday’s UFC 311 fight card picked up a new main event during the official weigh-in process. UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev will still put his title up for grabs in the main event. However, instead of facing Arman Tsarukyan in a rematch, Makhachev faces Renato Moicano in the headliner. We look at the betting odds for the updated UFC 311 fight card main event and offer our preview, picks, and predictions for the Makhachev vs. Moicano bout.
UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event: Islam Makhachev Vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2 Canceled
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 16: Arman Tsarukyan of Georgia is seen on stage during the UFC 311 … [+] press conference at Intuit Dome on January 16, 2025 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC)
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“UFC and UFC fans, I regret to inform everyone that the news is that I had to pull out of UFC 311 with a back injury is true,” Tsarukyan wrote on Instagram. “This was the hardest decision I’ve ever had to make in my fighting career.
“I would like to thank the UFC for understanding and I look forward to competing for my first UFC Championship in the future. Thank you all for your support.”
UFC CEO Dana White said of the change on the same platform, “Around 1 a.m. we received a call from Arman Tsarukyan, who informed us he was experiencing significant back pain and due to the injury he feels like his is not healthy enough to compete, he’s out of the fight. So, stepping in to face Islam Makhachev for the title is Renato Moicano.”
Moicano was booked on the UFC 311 PPV card against Beneil Dariush. Dariush will not compete at UFC 311.
UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event: Islam Makhachev Reacts to Arman Tsarukyan Being Out And Renato Moicano Stepping In
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 16: Islam Makhachev of Russia is seen on stage during the UFC 311 … [+] press conference at Intuit Dome on January 16, 2025 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC)
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White shared Makhachev’s reaction to the last minute change in fight plans.
“When we called Islam Makhachev, he said, ‘Brother, I am the champion. I fight anybody, I don’t care,’” White said on the UFC 311 weigh-in show.
“There were lots of options,” White said of the change in plans. “The best-case scenario is a guy who is already on the card, who is already in shape, who is already making weight, who’s had a training camp, and when you really look at it — and the press conference yesterday — who better than Moicano to step up and take this opportunity?”
“What does this title represent?,” Makhachev wrote on Instagram. “It means you are the best in the world and if you are the best in the world, it doesn’t matter who’s going to be standing across from you. What do I say? No? NEVER. Let’s do this!”
UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event: Renato Moicano Reacts to Facing Arman Tsarukyan
UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event: Islam Makhachev Vs. Renato Moicano
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 16: Islam Makhachev of Russia is seen on stage during the UFC 311 … [+] press conference at Intuit Dome on January 16, 2025 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
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Makhachev (26-1) has compiled a 15-1 record with the UFC, racking up 10 finishes (seven submissions, three knockouts) and five decisions. Makhachev captured the vacant UFC lightweight title in October 2022 with a submission win over former UFC 155-pound titleholder Charles Oliveira.
Makhachev has defended his crown three times since defeating Oliveira. His first two title defenses were a decision win and knockout of then-UFC featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski. In his most recent outing, Makhachev submitted former UFC interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier in the main event of UFC 302.
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 16: Renato Moicano of Brazil is seen on stage during the UFC 311 … [+] press conference at Intuit Dome on January 16, 2025 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC)
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Renato Moicano (19-5-1) is riding the first four-fight winning streak of his UFC career. The 35-year-old opened his run with the promotion at 3-0 record between 2014 and 2017. Since then, Moicano has been up and down. He followed that by going 5-5 over his next 10 outings before beginning his current unbeaten streak in 2022.
Moicano is 6-1 dating back to June 2021. His only loss during that time was a March 2022 unanimous decision setback to former UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos in a 160-pound catchweight battle.
In April 2024, Moicano picked up his first knockout as a member of the UFC, decking Jalin Turner on the early prelims of the UFC 300 fight card.
Then, in September 2024, the UFC tapped Moicano for the first main event of his UFC career against Benoît Saint Denis. That fight ended after the second round after Moicano left Saint Denis’ face bloody and swollen. The damage Moicano put on his opponent forced the doctor to wave off the fight as Saint Denis’ right eye was nearly swollen shut.
Moicano enters UFC 311 as the No. 10 fighter in the UFC’s 155-pound weight class.
UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event: Islam Makhachev Vs. Renato Moicano Betting Odds
The current betting odds for the new main event of UFC 311, Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano have the lightweight champion listed as a -1200 betting favorite over the challenger, who is a +750 betting underdog.
Those odds opened wit Makhachev at -900 and Moicano at +600.
*Odds according to BetOnline
UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event: Islam Makhachev Vs. Renato Moicano Significant Stats
Makhachev lands 2.65 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 59 percent. The champ absorbs 1.54 significant strikes per minute, and his striking defense is 61 percent. Makhachev picks up 3.19 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a success rate of 53 percent. Meanwhile, his takedown defense is 90 percent.
Moicano lands 4.42 significant strikes per minute while getting hit at a rate of 3.60 times per minute. Moicano’s striking accuracy is 49 percent, and his striking defense is 60 percent. Moicano lands 1.87 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy of 44 percent. His takedown defense is 72 percent.
UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event: Islam Makhachev Vs. Renato Moicano Predictions And Picks
ABU DHABI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – OCTOBER 21: Islam Makhachev of Russia reacts after his knockout … [+] victory against Alexander Volkanovski of Australia in the UFC lightweight championship fight during the UFC 294 event at Etihad Arena on October 21, 2023 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
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There is nowhere that Moicano is better than Makhachev and simply put, Makhachev should make easy work of his new opponent at UFC 311. The betting value in this contest is picking how Makhachev will win. Look for the champ to pick up a stoppage win, most likely via submission.
UFC 311 Fight Card: Dvalishvili Vs. Nurmagomedov Odds And Predictions
UFC 311 Fight Card Date
Saturday, January 18, 2025
UFC 311 Fight Card Location
Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California
UFC 311 Fight Card Time And How To Watch And Stream
Early prelims: 6:00 p.m. ET – ESPN+
Prelims: 8:00 p.m. ET – ESPNews
PPV Card: 10 p.m. ET – ESPN+ PPV
The UFC 311 fight card is the first pay-per-view even on the 2025 UFC schedule. Stay tuned for more coverage from UFC 311, as well as results, reactions, recaps on fight night.
