There are only so many times you can be happy with a draw in a title challenge, and this might need to be the last of them for Liverpool, who had to come from behind at Nottingham Forest.
Nottingham Forest 1-1 Liverpool
Premier League (20) | City Ground
January 14, 2025
Goals: Wood 8′; Jota 66′
1. Too many draws can cost you a title
Arne Slot was talking about Nottingham Forest for weeks after the 1-0 defeat at Anfield in September.
It’s almost as if he knew how much of an aberration it would be from the rest of Liverpool’s season.
Going into the return game against Forest at the City Ground, their meeting at Anfield remained Slot’s only league defeat as Liverpool manager.
Surely the manager, his staff and players will have done everything they could to work out this opponent ahead of this game, but Forest once again proved difficult to defeat.
You can see why this team are second in the league as they are hard to break down, but also have several routes to goal on the counter.
By the end of two league matches against Forest, Liverpool have only scored once, and in order to secure the title they will now need to go on a similar run to the one they had following the last time they played them. They can’t afford too many more occasions of being happy with a point.
As for Forest, they are genuinely good and played their part in what was a great top-of-the-table clash.
2. The wrong choice of striker
According to the stats, the best chance of the first half for Liverpool was Dominik Szoboszlai‘s header from Cody Gakpo‘s cross, but in reality that was far from an easy chance.
As this kind of data is based on shots, it can ignore some of the best chances a team has when the move doesn’t result in a shot.
This was the case when Luis Diaz found himself running at the Forest backline and a simple pass to the right would have given Gakpo a chance.
Given his form, you’d have bet on Gakpo scoring, but instead Diaz messed up the pass and allowed Murillo to intercept.
Diaz’s hold-up play was poor throughout and with a more natural striker on the bench in Diogo Jota, and the in-form Gakpo able to shift to the centre too, the hour or so played with Diaz as the central forward was a waste of time.
It’s not necessarily the fault of Diaz (a winger) either, and he has shown glimpses of good play in the position before, but there were few glimpses of that against Forest.
3. Telling difference with first touches
There was probably a case for Liverpool to make some subs at halftime after some poor displays across the pitch.
As mentioned above, they especially seemed to be missing a seasoned striker, so it was no surprise to see Jota in the second half.
It was a surprise that Slot waited until the 65th minute, but the subs he made, made an instant impact.
Kostas Tsimikas joined Jota in a double sub which saw Robertson, and unusually, Ibrahima Konate come off as Liverpool tweaked their roles with Gravenberch dropping in at centre-back when needed.
Both subs immediately combined in a rare clinical moment for Liverpool in this game.
Tsimikas’s first touch was a corner kick and Jota’s first touch was to head that corner into the goal.
It was to be the only such moment, but Jota’s liveliness up front and eye for a shot showed he should have come on earlier.
4. Tuesday title talk
It’s all been happening, or not happening, during these midweek games for the teams at the top of the Premier League table.
Man City conceded two late goals at Brentford to drop two points, and Chelsea needed a late goal from Reece James to rescue just one point at home to Bournemouth.
It seems no one wants to mount a proper title challenge, and at some point maybe we have to say that Forest are making the best shot at it.
Arsenal host Tottenham tomorrow, though, and have the chance to chip away at Liverpool’s lead.
The north London reds might have been the happiest team in the Premier League following Tuesday’s dramatic draws.
5. Window open: new arrivals needed?
It’s always tempting to look to the transfer market as a solution when a team doesn’t win regularly when the window is open.
A good way to judge how likely a team is to make signings in the transfer window is to look at the bench.
Even with Darwin Nunez suspended, there weren’t players on the Liverpool bench who would easily be left off to make way for someone else.
Jarell Quansah might miss out if Joe Gomez was available, but other than that Liverpool have a bench of senior players who can all play a role and who Slot would not want to leave out of the squad altogether.
New arrivals are not likely unless someone is sold. It’s probably more a case of doing deals to improve the overall quality of the team by selling and then buying, rather than adding to the existing pack.
The obvious area to do this might be in the striker role.
Slot has worked well with the existing team, and even his one signing so far, Federico Chiesa, has not been needed, so this is likely to be a selective window rather than one that produces a spending spree.
