It’s a new era of Falcons football, as Michael Penix Jr. replaced Kirk Cousins as Atlanta’s quarterback against the Giants on Sunday.
While most in-season quarterback changes come either early in the season or from teams who aren’t contending — see recent moves by the Browns and Titans — Penix was thrust into a winnable division race, and Atlanta took care of business with a 34-7 win over New York in Week 16.
MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture for Week 16
The Falcons were recently slipping behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South standings, but the Week 16 results, plus a favorable tiebreaker situation, have given Atlanta rising chances at winning a division title in coach Raheem Morris’ first season.
Here’s a look at the Falcons’ updated playoff chances and how they can win the NFC South following Sunday’s win over the Giants.
NFL HQ: Live NFL scores | Updated NFL standings | Full NFL schedule
Falcons playoff picture
NFC South standings
RankTeamRecord1Falcons8-72Buccaneers8-73Saints5-94Panthers4-11
The Falcons escaped with a win over the Raiders in Week 15, but they still entered Sunday trailing the Buccaneers by one game in the NFC South. That deficit was eliminated by the end of the day, as Atlanta beat New York while Tampa Bay fell to Dallas on “Sunday Night Football.”
Because the Falcons beat the Buccaneers in both of the teams’ matchups earlier in the season, they hold the tiebreaker atop the NFC South. Had the Buccaneers not squandered a late lead over the Falcons on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 5, the division race could look a lot different.
Instead, the path for the Falcons is now clear, as they control their own destiny to win the division. If Atlanta wins out, it will win the NFC South. If it loses at least one game, and the Buccaneers win out, Tampa Bay wins the division.
Atlanta is still scheduled to face the Panthers at home in the final two weeks, but it has a tough matchup against the Commanders in a Week 17 battle of the top two Heisman Trophy vote-getters from 2023. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, don’t face another winning team, as they finish their season with the Panthers and Saints.
MORE: Why the Falcons benched Kirk Cousins for Michael Penix Jr.
NFC wild-card standings
SeedTeamRecord5Vikings13-26Packers10-47Commanders10-58Buccaneers8-79Seahawks8-710Cowboys7-811Cardinals7-81249ers6-913Saints5-914Bears4-1115Panthers4-1116Giants2-13
While the Falcons are currently on top of the NFC South, they could still claim a wild-card spot if they fall out of the division race. Especially with a game against the Commanders still on their schedule, the Falcons could conceivably hold a tiebreaker against Washington for the seventh seed by the end of the regular season, but their path to an NFC South title is much easier.
Alongside the Buccaneers, the Seahawks are the only other NFC team currently out of a playoff spot but still alive in the hunt.
MORE NFL WEEK 16:
Falcons remaining schedule
WeekDateMatchupTime (ET)17Dec. 29at Commanders8:20 p.m.18TBDvs. PanthersTBD
The Falcons have a favorable matchup still, as they face the Panthers to end the regular season. First, though, they’ll take on the contending Commanders who just ended the Eagles’ 10-game winning streak.
The Buccaneers close out their season against two sub-.500 teams, so the Falcons won’t be able to take anything for granted.
Falcons updated playoff chances
ESPN’s Football Power Index rated the Falcons’ playoff chances at 21 percent entering Week 16, with a 15 percent chance to win the NFC South, although those chances likely improved with Atlanta’s win over the Giants and the Buccaneers’ loss.
MORE NFL DRAFT NEWS:
