The 2025 women’s NCAA Tournament field is set with plenty of exciting matchups spread across the bracket.
Top-seeded UCLA can build on its recent Big Ten tournament title and win its first national championship in school history, but fellow No. 1 seeds South Carolina, Texas and USC highlight a list of other contenders aiming to claim the sport’s most prestigious trophy.
Before the First Four tips off on Wednesday night, The Athletic’s women’s basketball experts are here to make their picks and predictions.
Download our printable bracket to follow along.
Best first-round matchup
Ben Pickman: No. 5 Kansas State vs. No. 12 Fairfield
Like offense? Then keep a close eye on this 5-12 matchup in the Spokane 4 Region. The Wildcats score 113.4 points per 100 possessions, the sixth-best mark in the NCAA. Meanwhile, Fairfield is 10th in NET rating. The Stags are fourth nationally in 2-point field-goal percentage and shoot tons of 3-pointers. Fairfield has emerged as a power in the midmajor conferences, but it is hungry for its first NCAA Tournament victory in school history.
Sabreena Merchant: No. 8 Richmond vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech
Another offensive dream. Both of these teams rank in the top 20 nationally in offensive rating but do so in dramatically different ways. Richmond relies on layups and 3s, while Georgia Tech thrives in the midrange, and the Yellow Jackets make up for their low volume of free throws and triples by never turning over the ball. They neutralize each other’s strengths. The Spiders allow lots of 3s, but Georgia Tech doesn’t take them. Richmond doesn’t foul, but the Yellow Jackets don’t normally get to the line anyway. It should come down to who makes more jump shots, which should be a blast.
Chantel Jennings: No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 USF
This will be a great first-round matchup if for nothing else than the contrasting styles. Does that make it the best? Not sure. But it certainly makes it interesting. The Lady Vols run a high-tempo, chaotic, heavy subbing system that thrives on its pace disrupting opponents (80 possessions per game). But USF loves to slow it down and has averaged just 66 points a game this season en route to the American Conference tournament title. This will be UT coach Kim Caldwell’s second NCAA Tournament game, while USF coach Jose Fernandez will make his 13th appearance with the Bulls.
Don’t bet on …
Pickman: LSU
The Tigers have not one, but two injury questions heading into the NCAA Tournament. Star forward Aneesah Morrow was helped off the floor in the second half of LSU’s SEC tournament semifinal loss to Texas with coach Kim Mulkey later saying Morrow aggravated a mid-foot sprain. Star guard Flau’Jae Johnson has not played since Feb. 27 because of shin inflammation. Both are likely to participate in the tournament, but LSU’s health concerns (coupled with their backcourt depth) are enough to give me pause on the Tigers making a deep run.
Merchant: The No. 4 seeds
Baylor, Maryland, Ohio State and Kentucky are an uninspiring crop, and I would expect at least two to be beaten on their home courts before the Sweet 16. The Terrapins and Buckeyes were blown out in the Big Ten tournament, and the Wildcats got the unfortunate draw of a potentially under-seeded Kansas State team with Ayoka Lee. Other than the Bears, none played its way into hosting. The teams benefited from others below them suffering more damaging losses. Furthermore, the No. 1 seeds are particularly strong this year, which makes it unlikely that any of the No. 4 seeds can spring an upset.
Jennings: Four No. 1 seeds to make the Final Four
There has been a rotating seat at the top of women’s college hoops this season, and this year doesn’t feel chalky when it comes to the Final Four. Each of the No. 1 seeds has shown elite high ceilings … and then we’ve also seen some rough stretches (or full games) from them, too. Though UCLA and South Carolina seem to have the least difficult paths to Tampa, even they have shown evidence to doubt them. If they get into a matchup that pushes the right buttons, it’s not out of the question they could be on the outside looking in when it comes to April.
The 2025 NCAA women’s tournament bracket is set!
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Who are potential midmajor Cinderellas?
Pickman: Harvard
Looking for a double-digit seed who could advance to the Sweet 16? The Crimson could be that team. Harvard has one of the best defenses in the country, allowing only 80.1 points per 100 possessions. They force nearly 11 steals per game and average 22.6 points off turnovers per contest, the 12th-most nationally. Add in the fact that the Crimson don’t turn over the ball often and feature one of the most dynamic scorers in the country in senior guard Harmoni Turner, and Harvard looks like a potential second weekend participant.
Merchant: Florida Gulf Coast
Harvard is a great pick, but in the interest of some variety, I keep coming back to the No. 14 seeds. Florida Gulf Coast is a trendy upset pick every season thanks to its unique style of play, one that has been maintained even after coach Karl Smesko left for the Atlanta Dream. The Eagles take the most valuable shots and deny opponents free throws and 3s. They won their first-round games in 2022 and 2023 and lost in 2024 by three points. If ever a No. 14 seed was to win an NCAA Tournament game (with Oregon State also earning a No. 14 seed in its first season as a midmajor), this is the year.
Jennings: No one (but maybe Fairfield)
Despite the increased parity, I still don’t think we’re at a place where a midmajor is going to be too much of a Cinderella. I don’t have any advancing out of the second round. I didn’t pick this upset in the first round, but Fairfield — especially if center Ayoka Lee doesn’t play much for Kansas State — could be dangerous. The Stags score a lot, share the ball, take care of it and play a defense that generates a lot of turnovers and steals. The only NCAA Tournament team on their schedule this season was Oklahoma State (Fairfield lost by two), but if Lee doesn’t play and if Kentucky gets shaken on its home court, could the Stags make some magic? Sure.
Which No. 1 seed is the most susceptible?
Pickman: USC
There’s a reason that USC coach Lindsay Gottlieb seemed ticked off that her team was the fourth No. 1 seed. While there’s plenty of basketball still to be played, a potential Elite Eight rematch with UConn looms large as a potential blockade to the Trojans’ Final Four path. Kentucky and Oklahoma also could present challenges, but as the best No. 2 seed, the Huskies are on the short list of programs that could win the national championship.
Merchant: USC
USC and Texas have the most difficult regionals, but the Trojans have the single toughest opponent in UConn, which is why they get the nod. We saw a much more limited version of the Huskies take down USC last year, and UConn was a possession away from beating the Trojans earlier this season without Azzi Fudd.
Jennings: Texas
I agree with my colleagues that these teams have the toughest paths, but I look specifically at the potential matchups coming the Longhorns’ way and think … oh boy. Texas averages just more than three 3-pointers per game and has sunk more than four in just six of their 33 games this season. Though Texas coach Vic Schaefer has made this a winning system during his career (the Longhorns won a share of the SEC regular-season title), in a one-game scenario, it gives me pause. Especially when teams like Creighton, Tennessee and TCU — squads that rank among the top 10 in 3s made per game — stand between Texas and the Final Four.
Who are your Final Four teams?
Pickman: UCLA, South Carolina, Texas, UConn
Dawn Staley might have been surprised the Gamecocks weren’t the No. 1 overall seed, but South Carolina should still find its way out of the Birmingham 2 Region with the continued emergence of Joyce Edwards and MiLaysia Fulwiley helping differentiate last year’s defending champions. In Tampa, the Gamecocks will meet Texas — for the fourth time this season — as the Longhorns’ physical defense will help them advance out of Birmingham 3. Size separates the Bruins from their competition in Spokane 1. UConn-USC could be the game of the tournament, but the Huskies have too much overall roster talent, even with JuJu Watkins starring as the nation’s best player.
Merchant: UCLA, South Carolina, Notre Dame, UConn
The Bruins have the easiest region, as expected for the top overall seed, and are the easiest selection. The only team that could realistically beat South Carolina is Duke, but it might be asking too much of the Blue Devils to get past Vanderbilt and North Carolina first. I thought Notre Dame was the most talented team all season. Hopefully, two weeks off gets the Irish their mojo back. And by the slimmest of margins, UConn vanquishes USC. It’s a shame that the matchup is in the Elite Eight, again, as opposed to in Tampa, because Watkins vs. Paige Bueckers should command the biggest stage.
Jennings: UCLA, South Carolina, Notre Dame, UConn
UCLA — as long as it gets the ball to Betts, its star in the center — seems like a lock for Tampa. South Carolina has a chip on its shoulder after losing out on the No. 1 overall seed, and there aren’t too many teams in its region capable of outplaying the Gamecocks in the transition game or with long-range shooting. A UConn-Notre Dame game would potentially be the best of the tournament, but in the previous iteration of this matchup, the Trojans eked out a win as Azzi Fudd played only eight minutes. At full strength, I like the Huskies. The Irish are my diciest pick, and if their recent trend of uninspired hoops continues (which I think we’d realize quickly), then this choice will look bad early. But I’m banking on their previous 19-winning streak, defensive stronghold, hot 3-point shooting, energetic and joyful version of themselves to re-emerge and make a run to Tampa.
Who is your national champion?
Pickman: UConn
In recent seasons, UConn coach Geno Auriemma said he would cross his fingers entering the NCAA Tournament, hoping his healthy players would stay that way as the Huskies’ depth had been shortened with injuries. This season, UConn enters the tournament with plenty of options as well as star power. Bueckers, Sarah Strong and Fudd are among the best — if not the best — trios in the field, and the Huskies have shown that they can elevate in big moments. Beating South Carolina on the road was the most impressive victory for any team this season. UConn’s ceiling has proven to be the highest in the country, leading it to win its first national title since 2016.
Merchant: UConn
Bueckers and Strong both average fewer than 30 minutes per game. Think about how much better the Huskies could be if they played an additional five or six minutes. UConn already put together an outstanding regular season, punctuated by its 29-point demolition of the Gamecocks in South Carolina. With how tough this season has been in the power conferences, the Huskies have been biding their time. If they can unlock an extra level in the postseason, this is their chance to end the UConn title drought.
Jennings: UCLA
This is the most talented team coach Cori Close has ever led, and when the players are all clicking, they can put the most challenging individual matchups on the floor. The Bruins are an unselfish team that’s peaking at the right time. They displayed impressive grit and focus in their Big Ten tournament title game comeback, and the only team that has exposed them this season was USC (and I don’t see them meeting for a fourth time this season). Come April — after a month of getting the ball into the paint with Betts and overwhelming opponents with that advantage — UCLA will cut down the nets for the first time in program history.
(Top photo: Joe Buglewicz / Getty Images)
