Brackets explode most spectacularly when both sides of a matchup cooperate to produce an upset. And the South will provide multiple chances for that to happen: Two favorites with glaring weaknesses are set to face the region’s two strongest underdogs, pending the results of a play-in game.
Below, you’ll find a game-by-game analysis of every first-round matchup with Bracket Breaker implications in the South. As a reminder, to qualify as a Bracket Breaker game, opponents need to be separated by at least five seeds (which is why we don’t cover 8 vs. 9 or 7 vs. 10 games). Our analysis adjusts teams’ basic strengths according to how closely they statistically resemble favorites and underdogs from past tournaments and, where appropriate, by style matchups. We can’t tell you how to pick — that depends on how richly your pool rewards deep upsets and your risk tolerance. But if you’re interested in how our model works, check out this piece.
You’ll also find links to the other regions as we post them, and stay tuned later in the week for upset odds for every potential second-round matchup.
Odds from BetMGM. For more March Madness coverage, check out all of our bracket advice.
More Bracket Breakers: Men’s Top 10 Upsets | West Region Preview | Women’s Top 10 Upsets
No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs or North Carolina Tar Heels
Upset Chance: San Diego State, 43.2 percent; UNC, 32 percent
Maybe not often, but sometimes, in statistics, as in life, things are simple. We write this over and over (and over): When it comes to top seeds and potential Cinderellas, the single most important thing a top dog can do to ward off pesky upstarts is to secure offensive rebounds. Hit the offensive boards hard, and a team can prevent prolonged dry spells. Well, Ole Miss ranks an abysmal 313th in the country with a 25.4 offensive rebounding percentage. That won’t buy them any early-round insurance.
Further, because Mississippi doesn’t produce a possession advantage at either end of the court, it falls into the category of favorites we call “Generic Giants.” This group is significantly more vulnerable to early upsets. And it’s easy to find recent historical comparisons for a slow-paced, defensively efficient squad like the Aztecs knocking off teams that statistically resemble Ole Miss. North Carolina State over Marquette last year, Iowa State over Wisconsin in 2022 and Rhode Island over Creighton in 2017 are a few that popped up in Slingshot’s similarity scores. With giant and underdog characteristics and matchups factored in, the gap in strength between these teams nearly disappears. It’s just that simple.
Meanwhile, North Carolina is not our model’s idea of a dangerous underdog for reasons unrelated to blue blood. The Tar Heels play fast (over 70 possessions per game). They don’t force turnovers (15.2 percent of opponent possession, ranking 310th). They don’t hoist tons of threes (37 percent of attempts). Indeed, Slingshot estimates that UNC’s statistical profile would cost it 7.6 points per 100 possessions in a tournament scenario against an average upper seed. That’s a pretty steep penalty. Yet our model gives North Carolina a nearly one-in-three shot to win this matchup anyway. Despite the difference in their seeds, UNC is almost as strong as Mississippi straight-up in our power rankings. And Ole Miss just doesn’t build possessions. Again, this one is simple.
No. 5 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons
Upset Chance: 37.3 percent
The announcement of this matchup during the NCAA Tournament selection show set off klaxons, red lights, buzzing phones — every kind of alarm here at Bracket Breakers Central. We’ve had our eyes on the Tritons for months. They’ve risen impressively from Division II, putting together a roster of smart, efficient players like Hayden Gray, who leads the nation in steal percentage, and star guard Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones (19.5 ppg). UC San Diego specializes in disrupting opponents’ defense and has built a ginormous advantage in possessions from its turnover differential: 23.4 percent for its opponents vs. only 13.4 percent for the Tritons.
And now they face Michigan, the team that’s probably most associated with “turnover issues,” as coach Dusty May keeps having to talk about it in postgame press conferences. The Wolverines rank 328th in turnover rate on offense — 328th! That’s terrible, and often lethal, for any upper seed looking to advance by playing safely. Early this season, Michigan was able to win despite turning the ball over on more than one of every five possessions because they were shooting the lights out. But that’s not sustainable. And the Wolverines’ problems with throwing the ball away don’t seem fixable anytime soon, particularly when they play a starting lineup that features two 7-footers (Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin).
We’ve got a nearly irresistible force meeting quite a movable object. And in the 10 games most similar to this contest in our database, underdogs won in four of the matchups, including Florida Atlantic over Kansas State in 2023. History could very well repeat itself — if, that is, UC San Diego actually winds up as the dog in this game. We’re not so sure they should be.
No. 4 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 13 Yale Bulldogs
Upset Chance: 16.6 percent
If our model could be distracted by interesting statistical cases, it could waste entire days staring at the data for these teams. Texas A&M is comically extreme in its inability to execute on offense. The Aggies lose the ball on 18.8 percent of possession (ranking 249th), shoot terribly from inside (48 percent, ranking 283rd), and are even worse from long range (31.7 percent, ranking 317th). Yet they rank 44th in the nation in offensive efficiency because they’ve got a massive 42 percent offensive rebounding percentage, the best in the country. As was true last year, their best offensive play is probably a missed shot. And this season, their defense is dramatically better at cutting off opponents’ shooting.
Yale, meanwhile, went 13-1 in the Ivy League, which had three of the worst teams in college basketball and never really tested the Bulldogs. And they’ve got some risk-averse statistical traits that our model dislikes in underdogs, like an emphasis on protecting the ball rather than forcing turnovers, and on defensive rather than offensive rebounding. But James Jones’ teams have played diverse styles over the years. Yale can shoot 3s (38.5 percent) when it needs to and launched 26 against Purdue, their toughest opponent of the season. Three of the 10 most similar games to this matchup in our database were won by the lower seeds. And Texas A&M can go dry for long stretches. Yale has a puncher’s chance here, but maybe not as good of one as some pundits think.
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 14 Lipscomb Bisons
Upset Chance: 10.8 percent
Ah, they grow up so fast. Three years ago, in T.J. Otzelberger’s first year at the helm, Iowa State leapt from 2 to 22 wins, including two big tournament upsets, by embracing chaos and forcing opponents into truckloads of turnovers. The Cyclones just kept getting better, morphing quickly from David into Goliath. Now, they’re still disrupting opposing offenses (turnovers on 21.8 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 14th), but also rebounding at both ends and shooting 3s selectively and well. They’re a top-20 team in offensive efficiency, top-10 on defense, and looked like a legitimate title contender — until they lost Keshon Gilbert to a strained groin. Now, the Cyclones’ upside is severely limited.
Against this, Lipscomb offers a mixed bag of tricks. They keep things slow and hoist a lot of 3s (ranking 26th in 3PA/FGA) but force few turnovers (15.8 percent of opponent possession, ranking 270th) and grab very few of their own missed shots (24.1 percent OR%, ranking a woeful 329th). That mix doesn’t yield anything like the secret sauce it would take to close the gap of more than 20 points per 100 possessions between these teams in our basic power ratings.
No. 1 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 16 Alabama State Hornets or St. Francis (PA) Red Flash
Upset Chances: Alabama St., 3.3 percent; St. Francis, 4 percent
As it updates its calculations, Slingshot has to respect the fact that 15- and 16-seeds have been winning more first-round games in recent years. However, St. Francis was founded in 1799 by an emigrant Russian priest named Demetrius Augustine Gallitzin, and we’re pretty sure even he wouldn’t have thought the Red Flash, clearly the worst team in the field of 68, have a 4 percent chance to beat Auburn. (Fun fact: The New York version of St. Francis shut down all its athletic programs in 2023, but we all still specify that this school is St. Francis of PA.) They rate slightly higher than the SWAC champions as a giant killer because they play a little slower and shoot a few more 3s. But not well.
No. 2. Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 15 Bryant Bulldogs
Upset Chance: 3.2 percent
Let’s take a moment to salute the Bulldogs, a fun bunch that crushed three straight opponents in the America East tournament, thereby ending Vermont’s decade-long reign as the archetypical schoolyard bully. Bryant’s got some size and works the boards. But they’re an even mangier underdog than the 16-seeds in this region because of their tempo. Motoring at 73.1 possessions per game, the sixth-fastest pace in the country, they simply run themselves out of games against better opponents. This is a team that gave up 112 points to Grand Canyon, 99 to St. John’s and 90 to, yes, Siena. That’s no way to compete with Michigan State, which is typically excellent on the defensive glass and around the perimeter and has the fifth-best defense in the country.
(Photo of Hayden Gray, Justin Rochelin and Yaqub Mir: Ian Maule / Getty Images; Illustration: Will Tullos, The Athletic)
