One of the best days on the sports calendar is almost here: Shortly after 6 p.m. ET on Selection Sunday, we’ll know which teams are in and which are out of the men’s 2025 NCAA tournament field — then we can officially start filling out brackets.
But … not quite yet.
The selection committee still faces questions.
Should the Mountain West get as many as five bids? Did Champ Week impact the 1-seed debate? The crowded SEC and Big Ten contingent also bring plenty of bracketing wrinkles.
Here are the 10 biggest questions the committee will have to sort through, from the top of the bracket to the cut line.
1. Does the SEC really have a chance at 14 bids?
In the midst of arguably the most dominant conference season in college basketball history, the SEC is primed to set an NCAA record with at least 13 bids on Selection Sunday — but could the league get a 14th? That question comes down to Texas.
The Longhorns have seven Quadrant 1 wins and good predictive metrics, but their résumé-based metrics are below 50 on average. Two SEC tournament wins gave them life after going 6-12 in SEC play and losing seven of nine to end the regular season, but will be a close call for Rodney Terry’s team.
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2. Do Cooper Flagg‘s or other players’ injuries impact the field?
In all likelihood, Flagg’s injury won’t impact any decisions on Selection Sunday — all signs point to the Blue Devils getting the 1-seed in the East region, which would put them in New Jersey for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. Had Duke lost to North Carolina in the ACC tournament semifinals or the prognosis for Flagg been murkier, there might have been adjustments, but it seems Flagg is set to be available early in the NCAA tournament.
Flagg isn’t the only noteworthy player battling an injury.
Houston’s J’Wan Roberts missed most of the Big 12 tournament because of an ankle injury, though ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported that Roberts is expected back for the NCAA tournament. Alabama’s Grant Nelson suffered an injury — the nature of which is not yet known — that kept him out of the second half of Saturday’s SEC tournament semifinal. Kentucky’s Lamont Butler suffered another shoulder injury in the SEC tournament, but there appears to be more optimism for a return than when he was injured. And ESPN’s Seth Greenberg reported that Arkansas guard Boogie Fland is expected to be available for the NCAA tournament, adding a wrinkle to the Razorbacks’ potential seeding.
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3. Are the four 1-seeds set?
In recent years, the selection committee has placed little significance on — or in some cases, completely ignored — late Saturday and Sunday results. Will that be the case this year? Auburn seems to have locked in the overall No. 1 seed despite losing three of its past four games, including its SEC tournament semifinal to Tennessee. But the Tigers have the most Quadrant 1 wins in the country, the most combined Quadrant 1 and 2 wins in the country and rank No. 1 in all three of the résumé-based metrics.
Duke will get a No. 1 seed and Houston seems poised to get one, too, after winning the Big 12 regular-season and conference tournament titles.
Florida had a statement, 22-point win over Alabama in the SEC semifinals that would seem to assure the Gators a spot on the 1-line as well. But would a Tennessee conference tournament title be enough to move anyone off the top line?
So the real question is whether Florida is assured of the fourth 1-seed. The Gators appeared to leave no doubt by blowing out Alabama 104-82 in the SEC semifinals. But could a Tennessee win in the SEC tournament title game knock Florida off the top line?
4. How much emphasis will the committee put on Quadrant 1 wins?
Arguably the biggest talking point over the past few days has been North Carolina and its Quadrant 1 record. The Tar Heels’ loss to Duke on Friday dropped them to 1-12 in Quad 1 games, and they are not the only bubble team with an eyesore of a Quad 1 record; Xavier is sitting at 1-9 in that category.
On the flipside, Texas has seven Quad 1 wins, and even Ohio State has six Quad 1 wins.
Could these splits be disqualifying for the Tar Heels or Musketeers? Or will the Longhorns being 12-15 and Buckeyes 11-15 against Quad 1-3 opponents look worse to the committee?
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5. Which metrics will matter the most?
The committee added two more metrics this year: BartTorvik.com’s rankings and Wins Above Bubble. There are now seven rankings on a teamsheet: the NET, plus three résumé-based metrics and three predictive metrics — that’s on top of the Quadrant records, the Strength of Schedule numbers, road/neutral records, etc.
Will the committee emphasize any particular metrics this year? As mentioned earlier, a focus on combined Quadrant 1 and 2 records would benefit North Carolina and Xavier compared with an emphasis on just Quad 1.
Do the additional metrics mean the committee is relying more heavily on them? If so, that would hurt West Virginia, San Diego State and Indiana, for example.
6. How many bids does the Mountain West get?
Anywhere from three to five seems possible. Colorado State won the conference tournament. New Mexico is a lock. Utah State’s form has fallen off recently, with three double-digit losses in their past five games, but the Aggies should still be OK. Then it gets interesting. San Diego State’s résumé looks superior to other bubble teams, and the Aztecs have a win over Houston — which is a nice card to play. They will probably be in Dayton, but they should get in.
So essentially, this question comes down to whether Boise State can get the league a fifth bid.
7. Does VCU need to win on Sunday? Are there any other potential bid-stealers to watch?
VCU would be in a more comfortable position had it not lost to Dayton at home in the regular-season finale; the Rams would have otherwise entered Sunday’s Atlantic 10 tournament championship with 11 straight wins and one loss over their past 17 games. Even with the defeat, however, Ryan Odom’s team seems to be in decent enough shape for an at-large bid. The Rams entered the weekend with a NET of 31 and fantastic predictive metrics. The negatives are a severe lack of good wins — the best win coming over Colorado State in December — and a Quad 4 loss in November.
Bubble teams will be rooting heavily for VCU against George Mason on Sunday.
Bubble teams will also be all-in on Memphis on Sunday after the Tigers escaped in the AAC semifinals against Tulane to advance to the title game. They are in the field either way, but a UAB win on Sunday would make the AAC a two-bid league and shrink the number of available spots.
8. Speaking of, how should Memphis be seeded?
Penny Hardaway has emphasized that he wanted to avoid the 8 vs. 9 game in the first round of the NCAA tournament so that Memphis wouldn’t face a 1-seed in the second round. Hardaway scheduled with that in mind, taking the Tigers to the Maui Invitational and loading up the docket with high-major opponents. With nonconference wins over Michigan State, Clemson, Missouri, UConn and Ole Miss, his plan seemed to be working. But now the Tigers seem poised for the dreaded 8 vs. 9 game once again.
Bad losses to Temple, Wichita State and Arkansas State aren’t great, but the Tigers’ predictive metrics are the worst among any at-large candidate, further weighing down their résumé. Will their collection of good wins save them?
9. Is the dream of a two-bid Big West real?
UC San Diego has been one of the best mid-major programs in the country all season, sitting at 30-4 with Saturday’s Big West championship win.
UC Irvine isn’t far behind at 28-6 after losing the tournament title game, but it’s hard to see the Anteaters getting an at-large bid — their only noteworthy win was over UCSD in the regular season, and their metrics aren’t otherwise strong enough.
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10. How does the committee assess the SEC teams hoping to stay out of Dayton?
Given the results of the past week, there is a strong chance at least one SEC team perceived to be safely in the field could end up in Dayton — Vanderbilt, Georgia, Oklahoma and Arkansas being the primary candidates.
Georgia is probably the safest, given it won four in a row to end the regular season, including a home win over Florida. Oklahoma went just 6-12 in SEC play, but the Sooners beat Missouri, Texas and Georgia before losing at the buzzer to Kentucky — their overall metrics and seven Quadrant 1 wins are big pluses.
Arkansas has injury factors, with Fland out since January and Adou Thiero missing the past six games, but the Razorbacks have won nine of their past 13 to move into the field.
Finally, Vanderbilt has faded since locking in a bid with an overtime win over Missouri on March 1; the Commodores have lost three in a row entering Selection Sunday and have the worst metrics of the four.
