Which teams can win it all? Which can’t you trust? And what are the Cinderella candidates you should be most aware of? That and more ahead of the start of March Madness.
The men’s March Madness bracket has dropped, and if you need any help filling yours out before the first full day of action tips off on Thursday, we’ve got you covered. We’ll work backward through the bracket, starting with the smartest championship picks, then looking at some options for the Final Four, before covering the teams that could bust your brackets and the potential duds to avoid. Finally, we’ll offer up one quick thought on every first-round matchup. Let’s get started with the title contenders.
Look, they call it March Madness for a reason. Nothing is guaranteed. But these three teams have separated themselves from the rest of the pack this season, and getting the champion right is the key to winning a bracket pool. So don’t overthink it and take that 3-seed to win it all just because you want to be different. I won’t tell you which of the three to pick—although you should really pick Duke—but I will lay out the case for each of them.
Goddamn it, they’re back. After a couple of “down” years while Jon Scheyer got his bearings as a head coach, Duke is back on top of the college basketball world thanks to the best freshman class in the country and some smart additions in the transfer portal.
The headline player to know is Cooper Flagg, the 18-year-old forward who stands at 6-foot-9 but plays much taller than that as he prowls the court looking for shots to block and passing lanes to jump. Flagg left Duke’s quarterfinal game in the ACC tournament after rolling his ankle, but he is reportedly “full steam ahead” for Duke’s game on Friday. Which will be big, because Flagg’s mobility is key to the Blue Devils defense. It allows them to switch 1 through 4, which disrupts opposing offenses and the easy buckets they can create.
Flagg’s offensive game isn’t quite where his defense is at this point, but it’s still advanced for a freshman, and he seems to improve every time he steps on the court. He’s already one of the best passers in the college game. There is no lag in his decision-making as a playmaker, which has caused some to compare him to Larry Bird. He can finish with either hand at the rim. He can finish through or over even the tallest defenders. He’s also developed a reliable spot-up jumper, and in recent weeks, Scheyer has deployed more off-ball screens to set him up for open shots beyond the arc.
The primary knock on Flagg’s game at the moment has been his play in the clutch. Duke has put the ball in his hands at the end of tightly contested games a couple of times this season, and each time, Flagg slipped and turned it over. It’s become a signature move at this point. But before you call him a choke artist, just take into account that he also did all of this at the end of those losses to Kentucky, Kansas, and Clemson:
Other notable non-Flagg players on this team are fellow freshman Kon Knueppel, a knockdown shooter who can put the ball on the floor and finish over smaller defenders, and Khaman Maluach, a 7-footer who can play pick-and-rolls aggressively on the perimeter and still get back in time to protect the rim. Maluach doesn’t have much of an offensive game, but he sure can catch a lob. Both he and Knueppel are projected first-round picks in this summer’s NBA draft.
The Blue Devils have been a bit soft on the defensive end in the past few years, but Scheyer picked up some toughness in the transfer portal, adding Sion James (a do-it-all guard), Maliq Brown (a stout defender on the interior), and Mason Gillis (an undersized stretch 4 who’s played deep into March) to help round out the rotation. James started the season on the bench but eventually cracked the starting lineup. His playmaking allowed Tyrese Proctor to move off the ball, and Proctor’s responded by becoming one of the ACC’s best perimeter shooters.
This Duke team has everything. A transcendent talent in Flagg. An NBA-level shooter in Knueppel and a rim protector in Maluach. It has experienced role players in James, Brown, Proctor, and Gillis. And it even has some more McDonald’s All-Americans who provide a spark off the bench when needed, as freshman Isaiah Evans did when he hit six 3s in a win over Auburn in December. Duke checks all of the boxes, and it’s looked like the best team in college basketball for the past two months. It may not be fun to pick Duke to win it all, but it is the smart thing to do this year.
If you can’t stomach the idea of backing Duke, Auburn isn’t a bad second option. The Tigers enter the tournament with the country’s best résumé. They tore through the SEC, which this year looked like one of the best conferences in college basketball history, and lost only five games against the nation’s second-hardest schedule, per KenPom. They boast the country’s second-most efficient offense. They’re old as hell, starting five seniors and playing a sixth off the bench. Five of those six upperclassmen were on last year’s team, so they have continuity on their side, too. If you yearn for the old days of college basketball, when players stuck around at the same school for four years, this is the national championship pick for you.
They also play an old-school style on the offensive end. Coach Bruce Pearl, the angry dad of college basketball, is still running his patented flex offense to great effect. Auburn scores a bunch of points off basket cuts, and when opponents sell out to stop those, the Tigers open up scoring opportunities off the ball. This veteran-laden group is comfortable getting to other options that are built into the offense.
Johni Broome, a National Player of the Year candidate, is at the center of things on offense. He’s a gifted scorer on all three levels. He can hit hook shots over smaller big men. He can hit a turnaround jumper from the mid-post. And he can even step out and hit 3s. Then there’s his passing. Broome is Auburn’s key to unlocking pressure defenses. By giving him the ball on short rolls and thereby creating a four-on-three situation, the Tigers are able to destroy aggressive opponents.
Pearl has surrounded Broome with solid shooting and playmaking as well. Miles Kelly is one of the best shooters in the country. Chad Baker-Mazara can make spot-ups or create his own shot off the bounce. Freshman Tahaad Pettiford is the team’s best passer. Denver Jones is best known for his on-ball defense, but he can also knock down perimeter shots. They have options on the offensive end.
Defense is another story. Auburn is a good defensive team—ranking 12th in the country in defensive efficiency—but one that can be exploited by opponents who hit the offensive glass hard or who can take on their defenders one-on-one. Only one team forces their opponents into isolation plays more often than Auburn, per Synergy.
Opponents don’t hit on many 3s because of this strategy. But teams with the talent to force more help defense—like Duke, Alabama, and Florida—can have big offensive nights against the usually stout Tigers.
Still, that’s no reason to fade this loaded Auburn team. It checks every box for a national title contender and has too many offensive options to fail on that end of the court. The Tigers can be outscored, but it’ll take a tremendous effort to do so.
Houston is a 1-seed for a third straight tournament. The last two times didn’t end well, with the Cougars crashing out in the Sweet 16 both years and sabotaging many brackets (including mine) in the process. Houston has violated our trust in the past, but this is a different team. I swear. Just give them one more chance.
The biggest difference between this version of the Cougars and the ones that have sputtered in the past is shooting. Houston ranks fourth in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. Its 39.8 percent hit rate from beyond the arc is the best mark of the Kelvin Sampson era, which stretches back to 2015. Guard LJ Cryer leads the team at 42.2 percent, and he’s one of three regular contributors on the team who shoot over 40 percent from deep. That has led to a spike in overall efficiency for the offense. This is easily the most efficient offense Samson has had at Houston.
There hasn’t been a lot of turnover in Houston’s lineup since last year. Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan replaced All-American Jamal Shead, which seemed like a major downgrade on paper but has actually led to better results. Uzan is taking on a new role as a lead guard, and he’s had no trouble making the transition, with a near three-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio. His calm ballhandling and soft shooting touch make him a pain in the ass for defenses, and from the middle of the floor, he’s able to pull up for a jump shot, hit rolling big men, or dish it out to Houston’s shooters for 3-point tries. Uzan isn’t the dominant scorer and defender that Shead was last season, but he makes the other four players on the court better.
Houston’s offense operates differently now, but the defense hasn’t changed. And that’s a good thing. The Cougars still swarm opponents in the half court, trap ball handlers, and flood passing lanes whenever the opportunity arises. J’Wan Roberts is the tallest player in the rotation at 6-foot-8—so this is a rather short team—but it feels like they’re all playing defense with rakes in their hands. As ESPN analyst Fran Fraschilla put it while calling Houston’s win over Kansas in February, “These guys, they look 6-7, but they play 7-5.”
Houston’s pressure leads to a bunch of turnovers from overwhelmed guards, but it can be exploited by teams with experienced and well-coached offenses. If you can pass the ball out of the traps, the rest of the defense is forced to scramble, which can lead to open 3-point shots or easy buckets at the rim. That’s a concern as you get deeper in the tournament and the talent level of the opponents rises.
The offense’s reliance on jump shooting is another cause for concern. Houston gets fewer shots at the rim than any team in the country, per Synergy. And while the big men will get dunk opportunities that are created by guard penetration, Cryer, Uzan, and Emanuel Sharp all prefer to pull up in the midrange rather than finish drives at the rim. This team has a championship ceiling, but it’s highly beatable if its jump shots aren’t falling. Auburn and Duke, in particular, will present tricky matchups for the Cougs.
East: Duke
West: Florida
South: Auburn
Midwest: Houston
Florida is the team that I could most regret leaving out of the title contenders section. The Gators are deep, talented, and big. They have four big men who play regular minutes. They have two guards, in Walter Clayton Jr. and Will Richard, who can take over games on the offensive end. They’re battle-tested, having won games on the road over Auburn and Alabama. And after steamrolling through the SEC tournament, they’ve climbed to second place in KenPom’s rankings. They’re third on EvanMiya.com and fourth on BartTorvik.com—two other prominent analytics-based rankings. On paper, the Gators are title contenders.
My biggest concern is Florida’s style of play. The SEC champs prefer to play fast. Only one team has scored more points in transition this season, and the Gators rank 11th in offensive efficiency on those possessions, per Synergy. But in the half court, Florida ranks tied for 52nd in offensive efficiency. Their bigs are talented, but the team lacks a true post-up threat, which puts pressure on the backcourt to create offense when things slow down. Slower pace is common in the NCAA Tournament, and Florida isn’t necessarily built for that style of game. That won’t stop the Gators from making a run—but it could be an issue against the teams they’ll see after the first weekend.
All of the nerd sites have Florida in their top four, along with Duke, Houston, and Auburn. And those four teams have separated themselves from the pack as the clear betting favorites to win the title. Picking chalk might be lame, but all of the data suggests it’s the smart move this year.
East: Duke
West: St. John’s
South: Michigan State
Midwest: Houston
Rick Pitino needed just two years at the helm to turn St. John’s into a defensive powerhouse. And center Zuby Ejiofor is the team’s most important piece. Ejiofor can bang with bigger bodies down low and switch onto point guards out on the perimeter. The Johnnies switch 1 through 5 on defense, and they also press for most of the game, which wears down opponents and tires out their shooters’ legs. Pitino also has big, active guards who can pick up full court and hold talented scorers up in one-on-one situations. Pitino might be the best game-planning coach in the bracket, and he’s got the players to execute any scheme.
East: Alabama
West: St. John’s
South: Michigan State
Midwest: Houston
Tom Izzo owns March. And for the first time in a while, he actually has a team that’s capable of winning a championship. This is a classic Izzo team. The Spartans dominate the glass on both ends, which provides a margin for error on offense. Michigan State doesn’t shoot the ball well from the perimeter—their bigs might shoot it better than their guards—but they get more shots than their opponents, and Izzo’s offense turns a lot of those shots into open opportunities.
East: Alabama
West: Texas Tech
South: Michigan State
Midwest: Kentucky
I wanted to take Iowa State from the South in this category, but with the Cyclones losing their best offensive player, Keshon Gilbert, to a groin injury right before the tournament, I couldn’t do it. So, Michigan State it is. For the other picks, I went with the teams that play the most exciting brand of basketball. Alabama, Texas Tech, and Kentucky play fast and their coaches implore their players to jack up 3s as quickly into a possession as possible. If these four teams make the Final Four, we’re in for an exciting three weeks of basketball.
We’ve covered your national championship options and the Final Four contenders. As we continue to work our way through the bracket, let’s take a look at the teams that, for whatever reason, may not be built for March. Whether it’s a fatal flaw on the offensive end, a hole in the team’s defense, or just bad vibes, these are the big-name squads that can’t be trusted to advance beyond the opening weekend.
The Vols spent some time as the no. 1 team in the nation back in January. They nearly nabbed a 1-seed after making a run to the SEC tournament final. And on paper, they look like maybe the fifth-best team in the tournament. This is a typical Rick Barnes team—they play at a slow pace, looking to beat teams up over 40 minutes and eventually wear them down. And like last year’s squad, this one is built around a sweet-shooting wing who knows how to use off-ball screens to get himself open—even when defenses are focused on taking him out of the game. Last year, that role was occupied by Dalton Knecht. This year, it’s a North Florida transfer Chaz Lanier. Lanier isn’t quite as reliable as the All-American Knecht was in 2024, though, so this Vols team is more prone to long scoring lapses. Plus, Barnes hasn’t been able to find scoring in the low post, which can compound the team’s offensive issues when outside shots aren’t falling. Talented offensive teams that can withstand defensive pressure will give Tennessee problems. And it only takes one bad matchup to end a March run.
It’s been a decade since Arizona made it past the Sweet 16, so you shouldn’t need much convincing here. This program has made a habit of disappointing fans in the tournament. Tommy Lloyd has won just four games in three tournament appearances since taking over as head coach in 2021, despite the Wildcats having never been lower than a 2-seed. There’s some hope that the Big 12 competition this season better prepared the Wildcats for the rigors of March basketball, but there are glaring flaws with this group. Caleb Love, a former tournament hero with North Carolina, stuck around for a fifth year of college basketball and he’s still the same shot-chucker that you remember. When he gets hot, Love’s irrational confidence can be a real asset. When he goes cold, he can sabotage the entire operation. Plus, Arizona’s most talented players are either young or stuck in secondary roles. This roster is still a year away from making a deep run in March.
I hope I’m wrong about this. Texas Tech is a highly entertaining team, and the tournament will be more watchable if the Red Raiders make a deep run. Star big man JT Toppin is a crafty scorer around the basket who can also pop out to the 3-point arc and knock down shots. Chance McMillian plays like a Gen-Z Reggie Miller, endlessly running around screens and hunting for open jump shots. And guard Christian Anderson is a future March star. When this team is at its best, it can score with anyone. But the Red Raiders are also undersized and have had issues protecting the rim throughout the season. They rank 285th in the country in average height and 245th in block rate, per KenPom. Federiko Federiko, the team’s best shot blocker, cramps the spacing on the offensive end, so he’s been limited to a backup role. And when he’s not out there, opposing teams can get to the rim and generate easy buckets.
Full disclosure: I’m a Maryland graduate, and this is a pathetic attempt at a reverse jinx. The Terps are built for a deep March run. Their starting five stacks up against any in the country and has even earned itself a nickname—the Crab Five—because of the team’s reliance on the starting unit (and the state’s love of crab-based puns). Maryland has gotten limited scoring from its bench over the past two months, but that’s really the only concern with this team. Well, other than the fact that it’s cursed and will almost certainly lose in heartbreaking fashion. Maryland is 14-4 in its last 18 games, and all four losses were decided with only seconds to go.
I feel like a realtor who’s obligated to tell you that someone was murdered in the house you’re about to buy. Between this hex and the team’s lack of depth, I can’t, in good conscience, advise anyone to pick the Terps to go far.
I know it’s tempting. Kansas is a brand name. They were the top-ranked team in all of the preseason polls. They have recognizable names like Hunter Dickinson, Dajuan Harris Jr., and KJ Adams. Bill Self is a Hall of Fame coach. It’s easy to visualize this team figuring things out in March and making a run. OK, now open your eyes, and let’s get back to reality, where this Kansas roster was never as good as its preseason ranking implied. Self whiffed in the transfer portal for a second consecutive year, and the team’s Big Three didn’t make any meaningful improvements to their respective games over the offseason. Kansas has no perimeter shooting and doesn’t have the athletes to get to the free throw line consistently. Opponents can crowd Dickinson without fear of giving up 3s, which has made scoring in the half court a challenge all season long. The Jayhawks have managed to stay afloat by playing good team defense, but there just isn’t enough talent for this team to turn things around in the tournament.
I’m not advising you to pick any of the following teams to make a deep run in your bracket, but they all have some Cinderella-esque potential. I’ve included a mix of small schools and big brand names that could disrupt this year’s bracket.
Drake has been one of the best stories in college basketball this season. First-year coach Ben McCollum, who won four national titles during a 15-year stint at Division-II Northwest Missouri State, brought four of his five starters with him when he was hired by Drake in April, and they immediately won the Missouri Valley Conference. Bennett Stirtz, who won the Larry Bird Award as the conference’s top player in his first Division-I season, is the star of the show. The offense runs almost entirely through him. Drake will spam pick-and-rolls until they’re able to create an advantage and get the opposing defense into rotation. From there, Stirtz can pick out an open pass or score himself. He’s one of the nation’s most efficient players.
Drake’s Bennett Stirtz with 30 and 5 assists over the weekend. Very clever, tricky off the dribble, uses that to get himself layups all day. Smart passer and defender, one of 5 players with 35% AST, 4% STL. pic.twitter.com/Ob08sz7xy4
— Jonathan Wasserman (@NBADraftWass) February 4, 2025
Drake plays at the slowest pace in the country, and McCollum prefers it that way because it’s prepared his team for postseason play, when games are slowed down and played in the half court, and hasn’t been as taxing on his starting lineup, which rarely comes off the court. Stirtz has played 98.7 percent of the team’s minutes this season. Sharpshooter Mitch Miscari, one of the four Division-II transfers, has played 96.5 percent. Those are the two highest rates in the country, per KenPom.
The Bulldogs are a bit undersized. McCollum added two bigs in the portal who didn’t play under him at Northwest Missouri State—Cam Manayawu and Tavion Banks—but neither is taller than 6-foot-8, so they mostly get by outhustling bigger players down low. That hasn’t stopped Drake from rebounding the hell out of the ball, but against a bigger team, things won’t be so easy. Missouri’s Mark Mitchell could pose a problem in their first-round matchup. But the SEC team prefers to play a fast-paced game, and that’s almost impossible to do against Drake.
High Point may sound like a generic high school from a CW drama, but the Panthers should not be dismissed. The Big South champs can score, ranking 25th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and 12th in effective field goal percentage. Kezza Giffa is the team’s leading scorer—a lefty who can shoot 3s off the dribble or get downhill on pick-and-rolls. High Point also has size: 7-footer Juslin Bodo Bodo is a handful on the glass, getting most of his shots on putbacks; and 6-foot-8 Kimani Hamilton is the team’s second-leading scorer, and he can handle the ball in the pick-and-roll or set the pick himself, where he’s a dangerous roll man who can finish above the rim. The Panthers also have two accurate shooters in Chase Johnston and D’Maurian Williams. They’ll have no problem scoring.
Thanks to its tall front line, High Point should be able to match up with Purdue center Trey Kaufman-Renn in the first round without sending extra help. When opponents can do that, the Boilermakers aren’t nearly as threatening on the offensive end. If this is a high-scoring affair—and it looks like one on paper—the Panthers will have a shot at pulling off an early upset.
McNeese has already made a name for itself this March thanks to student manager Amir Khan, who went viral after he was captured on video rapping along to Lud Foe’s “In and Out.” If you believe in the power of “aura,” you can just go ahead and pencil the Cowboys into your Sweet 16 now.
McNeese can play a little basketball, too. Former LSU coach Will Wade has the Cowboys back in the tournament after dominating the Southland Conference for a second straight season. Wade has built the roster up through the transfer portal, adding players who flamed out at the Power 5 level but still possess Power 5–type athleticism. Wade makes good use of that athleticism by playing an aggressive style of defense. The Cowboys press relentlessly and switch everything on defense. Their goal is to turn every game into a full-court track meet. Against lesser competition, it’s a brutally effective style of play. It’s also one that’s difficult to prepare for in a tournament setting. But McNeese didn’t get a good first-round matchup against an experienced Clemson team that prefers a slow-paced slough.
The quest for a three-peat hasn’t gone as Dan Hurley imagined, but there’s still time for UConn to leave its mark on this season. Hurley had to replace a lot of pro talent over the offseason, which surprisingly hasn’t had too big of an impact on the offensive end. The team’s defense has been an issue all season, and that problem isn’t going away. But UConn can score with anyone, and that includes Florida, a team the Huskies could potentially see in the second round. They may not have the defensive talent to slow Florida down. But UConn has more March experience, and the self-proclaimed “best coach in the fucking sport,” so it would be a tricky matchup for the top-seeded Gators—that is, if Connecticut can get past Oklahoma first.
It’s been a while since Gonzaga has been considered a tournament sleeper, but it’s a role this program is certainly familiar with. And based on metrics, the Zags may be dramatically underseeded. KenPom and Evan Miya have Gonzaga ranked ninth overall in the tournament, Torvik has them at 11th. The nerd sites are willing to look past Gonzaga’s ugly losses, which include a home L to Santa Clara, and instead see a team that has stacked dozens of blowout wins against a solid schedule. The Zags have one of the nation’s best big men in Graham Ike and can score inside on anyone. They don’t have reliable scorers in the backcourt, but they do have experienced guards who can make plays for others and protect the basketball. This team could give an undersized Houston squad issues in the second round and ruin some brackets before the end of the first weekend.
(1) Duke v. (16) American/Mount St. Mary’s
Duke should have no problem running its opponent off the court in the first round, whether it’s facing American or Mount St. Mary’s.
(8) Mississippi State v. (9) Baylor
Baylor has pro talent, including projected lottery pick VJ Edgecomb, but the team puts in a laughable effort on the defensive end at times—which an efficient Mississippi State offense should be able to exploit.
(5) Oregon v. (12) Liberty
Liberty has a potential March star in 3-point ace Kaden Metheny, but the Ducks could have too much size for the Conference USA champs to deal with down low.
(4) Arizona v. (13) Akron
Both teams can put up 90-plus points, so this could be one of the best games of the first round—if Akron’s 3-point shots are falling.
(6) BYU v. (11) VCU
VCU’s ball pressure can be a nuisance, but BYU has an NBA-level point guard in Egor Demin who should be able to handle that and create open looks from 3.
(3) Wisconsin v. (14) Montana
Montana isn’t in the tournament because of its stout defense—and that could be a problem against a Wisconsin team that can score on anyone.
(7) Saint Mary’s v. (10) Vanderbilt
Saint Mary’s is going to turn this into a half-court game, where their experience and continuity should make the difference against a Vanderbilt team that leans heavily on one scorer, guard Jason Edwards.
(2) Alabama v. (15) Robert Morris
Robert Morris doesn’t surrender a lot of 3s—which is a big deal against an Alabama team that loves the long ball—but it doesn’t have the talent to run with America’s fastest team.
(1) Florida v. (16) Norfolk State
No upset watch here: Norfolk State turns the ball over too much to hang with a Florida team that has dominated in transition this season.
(8) Connecticut v. (9) Oklahoma
Oklahoma isn’t any better than Connecticut on the defensive end, and the Huskies have more postseason experience.
(5) Memphis v. (12) Colorado State
If Colorado State keeps Memphis off the offensive glass, Nique Clifford and the Rams offense can outscore an inconsistent Tigers group.
(4) Maryland v. (13) Grand Canyon
This is sure to be a high-scoring game between two teams that like to run, but Grand Canyon may not have enough shooting to keep up.
(6) Missouri v. (11) Drake
This game will be determined by which team can set the pace: If it’s an up-and-down game, Missouri should win; if it’s slow, the Bulldogs could pull off the upset.
(3) Texas Tech v. (14) UNC Wilmington
We’ve covered Texas Tech’s lack of size and rim protection, and the CAA champs have the size (7-footer Harlan Obioha) to take advantage—though they may not have the shooting.
(7) Kansas v. (10) Arkansas
Neither of these teams can make jump shots consistently, so this could be a brickfest—which would suit a Kansas team that plays defense at an elite level.
(2) St. John’s v. (15) Omaha
St. John’s is a horrible matchup for any team that leans on its offense, as Omaha does—but the Mavericks are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the field, which could be an issue for a Red Storm team that is used to dominating the offensive glass.
(1) Houston v. (16) SIU Edwardsville
SIUE is one of the worst offensive teams in the field, and it’s taking on the nation’s most aggressive defense—this could get ugly.
(8) Gonzaga v. (9) Georgia
The big-man battle between Gonzaga’s Graham Ike and Georgia’s Asa Newell could decide this matchup: Newell has better NBA prospects, but Ike has looked unguardable over the last month.
(5) Clemson v. (12) McNeese
McNeese’s aggressive switching defense overwhelms low-major opponents, but it may not work against a Clemson team that never gets sped up.
(4) Purdue v. (13) High Point
High Point has the size down low and the perimeter shooting to give Purdue another first-round scare.
(6) Illinois v. (11) Texas/Xavier
Illinois will get knocked out by the first good offense it faces, so Brad Underwood should be rooting for a Xavier win on Wednesday night.
(3) Kentucky v. (14) Troy
The status of Lamont Butler’s shoulder will determine Kentucky’s ceiling in this tournament, but they won’t need him at 100 percent to get past a Troy team that wants to turn the game into a 3-point contest, playing right into Kentucky’s hands.
(7) UCLA v. (10) Utah State
If you’re a “defense wins championships” kind of fan, UCLA is the pick; if you’re a fan of creative offensive play, back Utah State.
(2) Tennessee v. (15) Wofford
Wofford likes to work deep into the shot clock, and Tennessee’s defense forces teams to grind out possessions, so the 15-seed may struggle to crack 50 points.
(1) Auburn v. (16) Alabama State/Saint Francis
Having lost three of its last four entering the tournament, Auburn will have some frustration to take out on its first-round opponent.
(8) Louisville v. (9) Creighton
Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner is a massive shot blocker who’s won four straight Defensive Player of the Year awards in the Big East, but Louisville lives at the 3-point line so his rim protection might not be a big factor in this one.
(5) Michigan v. (12) UC San Diego
UC San Diego could be a glaring omission from the “teams that could ruin your bracket” section of this piece—but with Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, Michigan is a difficult matchup for a Tritons team that lacks size in the frontcourt.
(4) Texas A&M v. (13) Yale
Texas A&M offense is powered by offensive boards, and Yale ranks 22nd in defensive rebound rate, per KenPom—this isn’t a great matchup for the favored Aggies.
(6) Ole Miss v. (11) San Diego State/North Carolina
North Carolina may lack the resume of a tournament team, but the Tar Heels have played good basketball for the last month and could give Ole Miss a game if they get past a San Diego State team that can’t shoot.
(3) Iowa State v. (14) Lipscomb
Don’t sleep on the Bisons: Lipscomb can score, and ASUN Player of the Year Jacob Ognacevic could be a tricky matchup for Iowa State.
(7) Marquette v. (10) New Mexico
Marquette’s Kam Jones and New Mexico’s Donovan Dent square off in the best point guard matchup of the first round; the Lobos are well coached by Richard Pitino, but Shaka Smart has more scoring options.
(2) Michigan State v. (15) Bryant
Michigan State will dominate the glass, and Bryant doesn’t have the defenders to stay in front of the Spartans’ guards.
Steven Ruiz has been an NFL analyst and QB ranker at The Ringer since 2021. He’s a D.C. native who roots for all the local teams except for the Commanders. As a child, he knew enough ball to not pick the team owned by Dan Snyder—but not enough to avoid choosing the Panthers.
