STATE OF EMERGENCY | STORM SHELTERS | WVTM 13 LIVE DOPPLER RADAR | UPLOAD YOUR WEATHER PHOTOS | WAYS TO STAY SAFE | GET WEATHER NOTIFICATIONS WVTM 13 meteorologists are tracking a severe weather outbreak in Alabama Friday night through Saturday with the chance of tornadoes, hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. ALERT DAY: Saturday, March 15 – a substantial threat of severe storms, including tornadoes, intense wind gusts and large hailALERT DAY: SATURDAYWe call a day an “Alert Day” when the weather could be life threatening and you need to be aware of the latest changes.A significant severe weather outbreak is now likely in Alabama on Saturday, March 15. Hazards include tornadoes, strong wind gusts over 70 mph and large hail. Some tornadoes could be strong and long-track (more than 15-20 mile path length). TIMING: There will be a round of storms ongoing Saturday morning in North and Central Alabama. There will likely be a lull in activity during the late morning and early afternoon before the main threat later in the day.A rough estimate of a timeline would start our “main” event as early as 11 a.m. Saturday and it could last through 1 a.m. Sunday. This will be a long-duration severe weather threat. IMPACTS: A system like this has the potential to be a higher-end severe weather threat in Alabama and Mississippi. Both supercells (individual rotating severe storms) and a squall line are possible in this kind of environment. Forecast guidance suggests the risk strong tornadoes, EF-2 or higher.From the SPC: “A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night.”Be sure you have at least two reliable ways to get warnings and know what your plan will be if a severe storm approaches.The Weather Prediction Center outlines a moderate risk for flooding across Winston, Marion, Lamar, Walker, Blount, Cullman, and Etowah. Turn around don’t drown!Confidence: We have an unusually high confidence in the outcome of Saturday’s storm system because of the balanced look it shows in forecast model guidance.The setup has been presented in a very consistent manner showing the right balance of fuel (CAPE, instability) interacting with a strongly “sheared” environment (wind speed increasing and changing direction above the ground).These factors will likely make Saturday’s threat a “classic” severe weather setup for the South:(1) A strong jet stream in the right position.(2) A small but strengthening area of low pressure near Interstate 40 from Memphis to Nashville and a very strong “low level jet” (strong burst of wind about a mile above the surface).There are always things that can disrupt systems like this. Right now, we do not see anything that looks like a clear failure point. If it does come in balanced as we expect, this could be a very rough day in Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia.The “Energy Helicity Index” shows just how balanced this looks. What does it mean?Think of it this way: if storms are happening in an environment like this, they have a high chance of being severe and capable of producing tornadoes.These two rounds of rain and storms also provide some hefty rainfall totals, and it could be enough for some flooding with isolated spots getting more than 2 to 3 inches.AFTER THE STORMSThe weather behind Saturday’s storm system improves greatly by Sunday afternoon. It will be much cooler with a stiff northwest wind. Daytime highs will only reach the middle 60s on Sunday and Monday, and it will get as cold as the 30s with some scattered frost by Monday morning.Our next chance of substantial rain will come Wednesday of next week, but that one does not have a “severe” look to it.For the latest weather coverage for your area, click here. And stay updated with alerts in the WVTM 13 app. You can download it here.

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. —STATE OF EMERGENCY | STORM SHELTERS | WVTM 13 LIVE DOPPLER RADAR | UPLOAD YOUR WEATHER PHOTOS | WAYS TO STAY SAFE | GET WEATHER NOTIFICATIONS

WVTM 13 meteorologists are tracking a severe weather outbreak in Alabama Friday night through Saturday with the chance of tornadoes, hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

• ALERT DAY: Saturday, March 15 – a substantial threat of severe storms, including tornadoes, intense wind gusts and large hail

ALERT DAY: SATURDAY

We call a day an “Alert Day” when the weather could be life threatening and you need to be aware of the latest changes.

A significant severe weather outbreak is now likely in Alabama on Saturday, March 15. Hazards include tornadoes, strong wind gusts over 70 mph and large hail. Some tornadoes could be strong and long-track (more than 15-20 mile path length).

TIMING: There will be a round of storms ongoing Saturday morning in North and Central Alabama. There will likely be a lull in activity during the late morning and early afternoon before the main threat later in the day.

A rough estimate of a timeline would start our “main” event as early as 11 a.m. Saturday and it could last through 1 a.m. Sunday. This will be a long-duration severe weather threat.

IMPACTS: A system like this has the potential to be a higher-end severe weather threat in Alabama and Mississippi. Both supercells (individual rotating severe storms) and a squall line are possible in this kind of environment. Forecast guidance suggests the risk strong tornadoes, EF-2 or higher.

From the SPC: “A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night.”

Be sure you have at least two reliable ways to get warnings and know what your plan will be if a severe storm approaches.

The Weather Prediction Center outlines a moderate risk for flooding across Winston, Marion, Lamar, Walker, Blount, Cullman, and Etowah. Turn around don’t drown!

Confidence: We have an unusually high confidence in the outcome of Saturday’s storm system because of the balanced look it shows in forecast model guidance.

The setup has been presented in a very consistent manner showing the right balance of fuel (CAPE, instability) interacting with a strongly “sheared” environment (wind speed increasing and changing direction above the ground).

These factors will likely make Saturday’s threat a “classic” severe weather setup for the South:

(1) A strong jet stream in the right position.

(2) A small but strengthening area of low pressure near Interstate 40 from Memphis to Nashville and a very strong “low level jet” (strong burst of wind about a mile above the surface).

There are always things that can disrupt systems like this. Right now, we do not see anything that looks like a clear failure point. If it does come in balanced as we expect, this could be a very rough day in Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia.

The “Energy Helicity Index” shows just how balanced this looks. What does it mean?

Think of it this way: if storms are happening in an environment like this, they have a high chance of being severe and capable of producing tornadoes.

These two rounds of rain and storms also provide some hefty rainfall totals, and it could be enough for some flooding with isolated spots getting more than 2 to 3 inches.

AFTER THE STORMS

The weather behind Saturday’s storm system improves greatly by Sunday afternoon. It will be much cooler with a stiff northwest wind. Daytime highs will only reach the middle 60s on Sunday and Monday, and it will get as cold as the 30s with some scattered frost by Monday morning.

Our next chance of substantial rain will come Wednesday of next week, but that one does not have a “severe” look to it.

For the latest weather coverage for your area, click here. And stay updated with alerts in the WVTM 13 app. You can download it here.