The Lakers have locked down on defense as Luka Dončić finds his footing, enabling a climb toward the top of the West standings.
Every season the post-All-Star break provides one last stretch for teams to announce their arrivals — or departures.
The remaining games begin to dwindle, the separation in the standings gets real and truths emerge. This is where playoff seedings and SoFi Play-In Tournament probabilities crystalize and give us a clearer snapshot of where 30 teams are headed.
As for those who are going up? This process begins immediately after the break, with a winning streak to boost chances of high seeds and in some cases, the top spot.
In this sense, there’s one clear winner: the Cleveland Cavaliers. All of the early and midseason signs are proving legitimate, because the Cavs refuse to stumble as March begins. They’re the only unbeaten team since the break and are streaking toward what appears to be a lock for first place in the Eastern Conference.
Here’s an assessment of six of the hottest teams since the break, with their records in parenthesis (all stats through Tuesday, March 4):
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (6-0)
In the season’s second half, the Cavs are embarking on a Remove All Doubt Tour where the purpose is to convince any remaining skeptics regarding the legitimacy of the No. 1 seed in the East. So far, so solid.
They only lost once in February and avenged that Feb. 4 stumble against the Celtics with a thrilling, chest-beating comeback last Friday in Boston. Therefore, the Cavs — currently on their third win streak this season of 10 or more games — have answered most if not all the questions with this post-break surge.
Thanks to their solid starting five and strong bench, they’ve shown an unflinching desire to maintain the top spot. Donovan Mitchell is a Kia MVP contender, Darius Garland is an All-Star and Evan Mobley has pole position for Kia Defensive Player of the Year.
And then there’s the midseason acquisition of De’Andre Hunter, fresh off a 32-point performance against the Trail Blazers where he made all the right plays at both ends. This means the Cavs, for the most part, have all the bases covered: star power, a defensive ace and a deep rotation.
All other questions about staying power must wait until the postseason. For now, the Cavs seem buoyed by the break. Actually, they’ve been in that state of mind for much of the season.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (6-1)
Oklahoma City will be coming up on a magic number pretty soon. The Thunder could lose a game a week from here forward and still win the West easily. That’s how much of a cushion the team built, basically from opening night, and helped greatly by this current surge.
OKC’s lone post-break hiccup was an overtime loss to the Timberwolves, no shame there, and has otherwise taken advantage of a light schedule (Jazz, Spurs, Nets). That doesn’t mean this stretch has lacked substance.
Isaiah Hartenstein looks more comfortable and is giving OKC everything it wanted on the boards. Chet Holmgren is ramping up his minutes and value since missing a chunk of the early season. These two big men will become massive factors once the playoffs begin.
There’s also the production from Jalen Williams, a first-time All-Star who celebrated that status with a 41-point shakedown of the Spurs, his best game as a pro. “J-Dub” is showing all the necessary ingredients to be a capable co-star.
Of course Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the league’s scoring leader fresh off 51 points against Houston, is showing no sign of a slump and still producing at a high efficiency rate that makes him a strong candidate for Kia MVP.
3. Detroit Pistons (6-1)
The surprise team of the season keeps pushing its boundaries and inflating the chances of finishing in the top six and guaranteeing itself a playoff spot. Hard to believe this franchise was in shambles this time last season, or that the shine of a good 2024-25 hasn’t worn off just yet.
The recent eight-game winning streak didn’t feature many impressive wins (other than the Celtics). Still, that streak infused the Pistons with confidence and a sense of belonging among the better teams in the East.
The surge also showcased players other than All-Star Cade Cunningham. Big man Jalen Duren continues to impress, Malik Beasley leads the NBA in 3-pointers made and Isaiah Stewart brings a dose of toughness to Detroit.
Of course, Cunningham has been brilliant at times and consistently good at others. He’s on track to possibly make one of the All-NBA teams, which is exactly what this franchise needs.
4. Los Angeles Lakers (6-1)
L.A. took flight before the break, going 12-3 to take advantage of a soft schedule (with wins against Brooklyn, Utah, Charlotte, Washington and other non-playoff teams). Still, the Lakers did what was necessary to position themselves for a rise in the standings. Today, they are in a virtual tie for second place in the West and solidly positioned for a top-six guaranteed playoff spot.
This deserves a nod in the direction of LeBron James. The grind of the season shows no effect on the 40-year-old and he’s playing better now, with more wear and tear, than before the holidays. Since the All-Star break, James is averaging 28 points, 10.1 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game.
Additionally (and surprisingly), the Lakers are better defensively. That was the No. 1 concern heading into the season. Even more surprising: they’re No. 1 in the NBA in defensive rating (106.9) since trading away Anthony Davis.
Of course, the immediate order of detail is Luka Dončić and his transition. His performances have understandably been inconsistent, at least if he’s being graded on a Luka Scale — much stricter than that of other players. His most recent game — 29 points and nine assists against the LA Clippers on Sunday — dropped hints of better days ahead.
There’s also a warning signal ahead, though. Starting next week, the Lakers have six games in eight days, including a pair with the Nuggets and Bucks and one with the desperate Suns. Then in the final five games, there are two with OKC, one with the Rockets and the much-anticipated Dončić-charged visit to Dallas.
5. Golden State Warriors (5-1)
There’s a tendency, from the outside looking in, to nominate last month’s Jimmy Butler trade as a major reason for this Golden State push. That is understandable as the Warriors seem rejuvenated, along with Butler, ever since he arrived from Miami and rediscovered the “joy” that was missing (along with the contract extension).
Truthfully, though? Stephen Curry rediscovered his night-night. There’s your reason.
Yes, the hand clasp and nodding head are back, along with the big shots, the swagger and the efficiency. There’s a high probability that all of the above will be on display Tuesday against the Knicks (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT) when the Warriors visit Madison Square Garden.
Curry began the season slowly (by his ridiculously high standards) when the 3-pointer wasn’t falling as frequently. Was this an Olympic hangover? Perhaps. He had some rough shooting nights: a few 3-for-10s, some 4-for-15s, an 0-for-6 (yikes) and closed out 2024 with a 3-for-11 in a loss to the Cavaliers.
And guess what happened on Jan. 2? Curry rang in the new year with a perfect 8-for-8 (and 11-for-15 overall) in a win against Philly. Since then, his struggles have been fewer. The return-to-normal meant 40% shooting from deep in January and a 30.7 scoring average in February, spiked by his 56-pointer in Orlando on Feb. 27.
It’s all coming together for Curry and, fittingly, the Warriors, who are falling in line and getting contributions from Butler and a stream of supporting cast members (Brandin Podziemski) who are plugging holes. There was a pre-break fear of the Warriors teetering on the edge of making/missing the Play-In Tournament. Now, maybe not.
Now 8-2 since trading for Jimmy Butler, the Warriors are emerging from the Play-In pack and threatening to climb further still.
6. Milwaukee Bucks (5-1)
Milwaukee gets a spot here and has beaten the Wolves and Mavericks on the road, along with the Nuggets, Clippers and Heat. This is a welcome uptick for a team trying to stay among the top four in the East and at least gain home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
It’s also the tonic for a team that saw Giannis Antetokounmpo miss a handful of games because of injury and is without Bobby Portis while he serves a 25-game suspension.
There is a sense of urgency with the Bucks and they’ve responded so far. As long as Antetokounmpo keeps collecting double-doubles, Damian Lillard rediscovers his efficiency from deep, Gary Trent Jr., replaces Portis’ production off the bench and Kyle Kumza gets more comfortable with his new teammates, Milwaukee should win its share.
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Shaun Powell has covered the NBA for more than 25 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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