After the 2024 season, 49ers wideout Deebo Samuel requested a trade. The 49ers ultimately obliged and moved the former superstar to Washington for a reported fifth-round pick. The move changes the fantasy outlooks for both teams with San Francisco clearing targets for other receivers and Washington adding a queen chess piece receiver to their check-down-heavy approach.
Commanders Fantasy Fallout
The Commanders were desperate for a No. 2 receiver coming out of the 2024 season. Zach Ertz operated as a de facto second target for the team, trailing only Terry McLaurin in catches (66), yards (654), and touchdowns (seven). Olamide Zaccheaus and Noah Brown finished third and fourth on the team in yards. All three and a handful of other part-time players are free agents. In total, the Commanders have 292 targets—58 percent of their season total—set to hit free agency. On top of the overall need, Samuel fits a specific niche for the Commanders.
Washington ranked fifth in screen pass attempts in 2024, throwing 88 such passes during the regular season. Despite Kliff Kingsbury’s desire to scheme up these plays, he wasn’t very good at it. The Commies averaged 5.4 yards per pass attempt on screens, the 22nd-best mark in the league. Samuel struggled in 2024, averaging 44.7 receiving yards per game at 1.6 yards per route run. Both marks were the lowest of his career. Even in the midst of this troubling season, Samuel remained an asset in the screen game. Among wideouts with at least 10 screen targets, Samuel ranked 12th in yards per target and 14th in yards after the catch per reception. Only three wideouts generated more YAC per catch than Deebo on all types of targets. While he may not be the superstar of previous years, Samuel is still one of the best wideouts with the ball in his hands. In a Kingsbury offense that prioritizes short throws, Samuel has found a spot that will allow him to sustain WR2/3 fantasy numbers into 2025.
McLaurin should still operate as the team’s No. 1 receiver and Samuel’s presence underneath may even open up more deep looks for him. His target dominance could waver, but Samuel’s presence is a greater concern for players like Zach Ertz. The veteran tight end is a free agent but a return to Washington is his most likely outcome. If he does re-up with the C’s, his role will take a hit. Ertz easily led the Commanders with 56 targets between zero and nine yards downfield. He earned 56 looks in this range, accounting for 64 percent of his target total. Samuel dominates these types of targets and could render the age-34 tight end obsolete.
49ers Fantasy Fallout
Even though Deebo requested a trade, the 49ers’ willingness to move on is an unmitigated vote of confidence in their current stable of receivers. Brandon Aiyuk is coming off Week 7 ACL and MCL tears. In 2023, he ranked eighth in yards per route run and second in Pro Football Focus receiving grade. Even with the catastrophic injury, San Francisco appears confident in a return to form for Aiyuk at some point. The timing of his injury means that he is unlikely to be back for the start of next year. That leaves second-year wideout Ricky Pearsall and recently-extended Jauan Jennings to hold down the fort.
Pearsall’s rookie season was a mixed back. Having been shot in the chest before the start of the season, a mixed bag is a truly miraculous outcome. After a quiet start, Pearsall caught fire over his final two games, torching the Lions for 141 yards and a score before closing his brief debut campaign with 69 receiving yards and one touchdown versus Arizona. Pearsall ran 40 percent of his routes from the slot compared to 60 percent for Deebo. However, he logged a 58 percent slot rate in college, positioning him to take over Samuel’s slot reps next year. Pearsall is a first-round pick who flashed as a rookie and now has a runway to snaps heading into his second season. This is what an impending breakout looks like.
Jennings deserves plenty of credit as well. The unheralded receiver stepped up in a big way last year, totaling 975 yards and six scores with Samuel, Pearsall, and Aiyuk all missing time. He was targeted on 26 percent of his routes and earned 2.3 yards per route run. Jennings could cede routes to Aiyuk once the latter is healthy, but he is a safe bet for WR2 production early in the season.
The absence of Samuel won’t impact George Kittle’s routes, but he could be used as a YAC producer even more in 2025. Kittle has finished top-10 in yards after the catch per reception in each of the past five seasons. His 6.5 YAC per catch during that stretch is third among tight ends. If the 49ers want the keep scheming up easy yards for Brocky Purdy, Kittle is their guy.
