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The two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs will try to reach their fifth Super Bowl in the last six years when they battle the Buffalo Bills in the 2025 AFC Championship Game on Sunday. It will be the seventh consecutive year they have reached the AFC title game. The Bills (13-4), who are coming off a 27-25 win over the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round, are 5-4 on the road this season. The Chiefs (15-2), who defeated the Houston Texans 23-14 on Saturday, are 9-0 at home.
Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. Kansas City is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Chiefs odds from SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 47.5. Kansas City is a -125 money-line favorite (risk $125 to win $100), while Buffalo is a +104 underdog (risk $100 to win $104). Before making any Bills vs. Chiefs picks, NFL bets or NFL playoff predictions, make sure you check out what SportsLine NFL expert Mike Tierney has to say, considering his mastery of picks involving the Bills.
A veteran sportswriter whose work appears periodically in the New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. Tierney is 154-124-9 in the NFL the past two seasons, returning $1,586 to $100 players. In addition, he is an amazing 47-30-4 on his last 81 betting picks in games involving the Buffalo Bills, returning a whopping $1,435. Anyone who has followed him at sportsbooks and on sports betting apps could be way up.
In addition to Tierney’s picks for this game, you can get AI props, Vegas expert picks, DFS Optimizer lineups, and everything else you need to crush your AFC Championship Game football bets. Go to SportsLine now to see it all.
Now, Tierney has zeroed in on Bills vs. Chiefs. You can head to SportsLine to see his picks. Here are the NFL odds and NFL betting lines for Chiefs vs. Bills:
- Bills vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -1.5
- Bills vs. Chiefs over/under: 47.5 points
- Bills vs. Chiefs money line: Buffalo +104, Kansas City -125
- BUF: The Bills are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games
- KC: The Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games
- Bills vs. Chiefs picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Bills vs. Chiefs streaming: Paramount+ (Try for free)
Top Bills vs. Chiefs predictions
For Bills vs. Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, Tierney is leaning Under the total. The Under has hit in seven of Kansas City’s last 10 games and in two of the past four head-to-head meetings with Buffalo. The Chiefs had the ninth-best defense during the regular season, allowing 320.6 total yards per game, and was the fourth-stingiest in scoring, allowing just 19.2 points per game. Buffalo allowed the 17th-fewest yards at 341.5 and tied with Seattle for the 11th-fewest points allowed at 21.6.
The Chiefs have allowed 20 or fewer points in seven of the past eight games. Offensively, Patrick Mahomes was efficient in the win over the Texans, completing 16 of 25 passes (64%) for 177 yards and one touchdown and a rating of 98.3. The Kansas City rushing attack managed just 50 yards, and was led by veteran Kareem Hunt with just eight carries for 44 yards and a score. The team was led by tight end Travis Kelce’s seven catches for 117 yards and one touchdown.
The Bills’ defense has been solid as well. In the team’s last eight wins, including the postseason, they have allowed 20 or fewer points six times, including just seven in the 31-7 Wild Card Round win over the Denver Broncos. In the first meeting with the Chiefs, Buffalo allowed just 259 total yards in a 30-21 victory on Nov. 17. In Sunday’s win over the Ravens, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen completed 16 of 22 passes for 127 yards, while rushing 10 times for 20 yards and two touchdowns. See which side to pick here.
How to make Chiefs vs. Bills picks
Tierney has analyzed Bills vs. Chiefs from every possible angle and while we can tell you he’s leaning Under the point total, he has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. Head to SportsLine to see what it is, and find out which team to back.
Who wins Bills vs. Chiefs on Sunday, and which critical x-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on, all from the expert who is 47-30 on picks involving the Bills, and find out, and don’t forget to unlock AI props, Vegas expert picks, DFS Optimizer lineups, and all the other tools to crush your picks at SportsLine.
